Piers Corbyn got last weekend right

I've made plenty of blog entries in the past about maverick weatherman Piers Corbyn and his forecasts. To tell the truth I haven't been following him much lately but when I turned to his weatheraction.com website the other day (can be viewed here) I was in for a pleasant surprise. When I first crossed swords with Piers he had a very amateur looking website, he would suddenly change to a different size font or a different colour and it was all scripted in a very 'tabloid' way. Well now his site has a much smoother and more professional look about it thank goodness! Interestingly, as can be seen from his homepage, he is now broadcasting on YouTube. Although not the most comfortable man in front of a camera, but a darn sight better in his broadcasts than Gordon Brown it has to be said, I have to congratulate him on using this medium. The number of viewers are pretty low at the moment but it's early days I guess.

In the past I've flagged up some real howlers by Piers and have been taken to task by some of his loyal disciples for, in their eyes, being unfair to him. Well I can only report what I see and the failure of Piers to admit his bad mistakes allied to his arrogance didn't help me to warm to him. One would no doubt have to buy his monthly forecasts and compare what they said with the reality over an extended period to make a really good judgement. It's the forecast he makes of the most severe events that get into the public domain and consequently get the most attention.

The end of May saw Piers make a forecast of a number of extreme weather events for the month of June, not just here but worldwide, and this can be read on his website and was repeated on the YouTube video. Regarding the UK he said this: Around 06- 09 June 09 (Ew0928) Most of Ireland & Britain (espec E/SE) & adjacent Europe (eg Netherlands/ Belgium/ N France). Major thunderstorms hail & local floods with whirlwinds likely (80% confidence). I would say that is a pretty impressive bit of forecasting Mr Corbyn. Last weekend we had some rain in my part of the Tamar Valley but in the Dawlish, Exeter to Tiverton area it was much much worse with severe thunderstorms and associated flooding. Looking at the weathermaps other areas further east have suffered as well it would seem.

I'm pleased to give credit where it's due!

Bookies should thank Piers Corbyn

If one goes to the homepage of weatheraction.com right now then you can see these words from Piers Corbyn "Storms and floods 12th & 13th December 'stunning success' for WeatherAction", followed by more words of self congratulation. Unfortunately for Piers the whole effect is ruined by the following near the top and in larger font: "Xmas Eve - Major storm; Xmas Day - Snow!" Ahem, "Major storm ... Snow" - I don't think so Piers!! And he had been forecasting another of his storms for the end of the month - it's not happening Piers!

We have been, and still are, under the influence of a large anticyclone, what meteorologists refer to as a 'blocking high'. Good name as it blocks areas of low pressure trying to come in off the Atlantic. What we have here is another example of Piers painting a totally wrong scenario, not just something slightly wrong in detail. And of course this anticyclone has been affecting the whole country i.e. I'm looking at the big picture not just Devon and Cornwall.

With Piers it's so difficult to deduce that his methods work when his forecasts do turn out to be accurate if other forecasts by him for nearby time periods are so terribly terribly wrong. Thinking about December for a moment there is a very good chance of getting a bad storm affecting a large part of the country at some stage and the one mid month Piers is taking credit for is one such. Now hold on a moment, didn't Piers flag up six possible storms for December? He is allowing himself a tolerance of + or - one day in the timing of the storm (fair enough in my opinion) so any one storm could occur on any one of three days. Multiplying 3 by 6 is 18 according to me and any one day out of 18 for a 31 day month aren't bad odds in my opinion! So here's the question about the forecast by Piers for the storm on 12th/13th: did his techniques work or did he just strike lucky?

Finally, why I decided to use the title "Bookies should thank Piers Corbyn" can be deduced from a link to the 'Daily Star' from the 'Latest News' page on the WeatherAction website. The media story quotes Piers saying the following: "Our advice to beat the credit crunch is to place a bet on a white Christmas because it's never looked more likely". The bookies had stood to lose a lot of money (not only because of Piers it has to be said) but are now smiling after a good Christmas for them.

Piers was full of himself getting some bad weather correctly forecast much earlier in the month. Will he now publicly apologise for his wrong advice to those who bet on a white Christmas?

Why Piers Corbyn gets so much space

When I started this blog I didn't have rigid ideas about all the subjects that I was likely to write about. I didn't doubt that the weather would feature now and again - like most folk in the UK for me it's an ever present talking point. In my case I have a particular liking for being in the fresh air, natural phenomena are always fascinating and I can't remember a time when I haven't been absorbed by an interest in our variable weather.

Somehow therefore I seem to have been destined to comment on the forecasts from Piers Corbyn of weatheraction.com. Piers is particularly famous (or infamous) for making weather projections up to a year ahead in time, something I don't think any other forecaster would try and do. What's more Piers was supposedly having marked success with his techniques. This whole business fascinated me and I decided to take note of how his prophecies were turning out in practice. My observations demonstrated to me that Piers was in actual fact making many awful blunders and that his forecasts weren't anything like as good as some would have you believe. I have finished up making a lot of entries showing just how wide of the mark he has been.

Lately some of Mr Corbyn's disciples have come to his defence in the comments on this blog and I have to say I welcome those attacking what I write - it makes for an invigorating read and acts as a check on any personal bias I have. However for those challenging me I need to clear up certain points. Firstly, because I criticise Piers on the outcome of his forecasts it does not mean I necessarily disagree with him on the subject of man made climate change. For the record I'm neither an adherent or denier so far as that is concerned, I just do not have sufficient in depth knowledge to come down on one side or the other. Let's be honest, 99.99% of the population just go with some sort of gut feeling on the subject. No it's not climate change but weather on which I cross swords with Piers. Secondly, it's been pointed out that Piers will normally attach a particular confidence level to his predictions (so many %) so he is saying in effect that none of these things may actually occur! Thirdly, I've been taken to task for not having a go at the Met Office and others who perhaps so far as longer term forecasts are concerned are no better than Piers. Regarding this last point it's the arrogance that Piers displays and reluctance to admit he can be wrong that really grates with me and perhaps this is why I seem to have him in my sights so often. I guess that I've written as much as anyone else in the Blogosphere about Piers!

I'm going to make a separate entry about the totally wrong forecast from Piers regarding the Christmas just past but am asking myself whether or not to spend time repeatedly blogging about him in future. By scrolling down through the subjects on the right hand side of this blog you can find the entries I've made with his name tag and I feel that I've well and truly made my point. If time were of no consequence I would love to buy all his monthly forecasts and then produce a totally separate blog shadowing what he says will happen. Unfortunately there are only 24 hours in one day! So it may be I'll give him a rest for now.

Piers Corbyn - an apology from me

On Monday 15 December I made a blog entry under the title "Bad weather NOT forecast by Piers Corbyn". This was in relation to the extreme weather we had just suffered in particular the deluge that occurred in East Devon and Somerset with people being rescued from cars stuck in the floods. Very nasty although here we were relatively unscathed. Usually I try to be forensic in my analysis but this time I failed. I used the very brief summary forecast on the weatheraction.com homepage to make my comment about Piers. What I should have noted in this particular instance is that not all the storms that were in his detailed forecast had been brought forward to his homepage and this event appears to have been one of those occasions. So an unreserved apology from me for my lax reporting.

Bad weather NOT forecast by Piers Corbyn

It was a week ago when I last blogged about the latest forecast by Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com. Piers reckoned we would get a storm that weekend, he was as usual totally wrong. No prophecy was made on his website of the very poor weather we experienced in the southwest over this most recent weekend. The heavy rain led to very bad conditions on the roads and curtailment of some rail journeys. East Devon and Somerset were particularly affected and sadly an elderly gent in the latter county lost his life when his car was trapped in the floodwater. I'm not aware of any properties getting flooded locally but the Tamar burst its banks, making the riverside path impassable in places. The Tamar has a habit of rising and falling very quickly and with a full moon the other day we now have spring tides which doesn't help.

On the summary page on the Weatheraction website the next storm of note is around Christmas Eve. Will Piers manage to get it right this time?

Piers wrong - no storm this weekend

If you follow this blog regularly you will know that I have often criticised weather forecaster Piers Corbyn, one of the better known deniers of man-made global warming. It's not on that issue that I berate him in these jottings, it's the monthly forecasts he puts out that gets me going. He had a very, very bad October in which he was wrong in every single respect; November was a little better and I gave him 3 out of 10 for that one - slightly generous perhaps, spreading a little bit of my Christmas spirit and all that!

In his December summary Piers lists his anticipated storm periods and says the timings could be + or - one day. Fair enough I guess. Today is the seventh and Piers has 6 to 8 December (with the plus or minus one day tolerance) as one of these times of storm. In fact he goes further and reckons we would get bashed by two such events, one on the sixth and the other two days later. Just in case it hasn't been noticed there has been glorious sunshine over the south west this weekend: a nice ridge of high pressure has lain over the south of Britain, 'up north' it may not have been so good but they certainly haven't had Piers' promised storm over this period. A front is moving south over the country (we are supposed to get it tomorrow afternoon) but it looks to be a relatively innocuous affair, not a feature that would merit the word 'storm' that's for sure.

So not good for Piers this time. His next major weather event flagged up is for a storm on the 23 to 24 December (he always has something dramatic to give us for Christmas!!) and then snow on Christmas Day itself. On the 'Weatheraction.com' website there is an article reproduced from the 'Daily Star' in which Piers apparently made the comment "We are 75% sure that there will be snow in many - but not all - locations offered by bookies this Christmas" and goes on to say "Our advice to beat the credit crunch is to place a bet on a white Christmas because it's never looked more likely". Now I've looked at the William Hill website and they evidently take separate bets on snow at Aberdeen, Glasgow, Cardiff and London falling during the 24 hours of Christmas Day, I suspect that the other bookies do the same. Will Piers be right this time? He can't always get it wrong! I shall either be praising him or lambasting him before the end of the month. Whatever the odds presented I won't be placing any bets but it seems that a lot of money has already been staked.

Piers Corbyn - November forecast review

At the end of October I had reviewed the weather forecast put out by Piers Corbyn for that particular month and found that it was one of his worst efforts with literally nothing right so zero out of ten I'm afraid. Now comes the judgement for November. Here was his forecast then (on his Weatheraction.com website) for the month just gone:

"November 2008. Dramatic changes. Cold wintry spells separated by heavy rain, floods and storms. Severe Weather Warning: Gale damage with North Sea storm surge risks (70% likely) and/or sleet and snow espec around 12 - 14 th & 25 - 28 Nov."

This is a little bit better Piers! He has brought out the sleet/snow angle OK and although we haven't seen any of the white stuff here during this present cold wintry spell I am prepared to accept that further east and north there could have been some. Regarding the reference to the 12 - 14 th the roughest weather was around the 10 th in fact but not really anything more than what you would expect in late autumn. North Sea storm surge? Didn't hear anything about that but in fairness that was only a 70% risk. Difficult to give a fair marking but as it's getting close to Christmas let's say 3 out of 10. Now what goodies will Piers bring for December? I hope he doesn't keep me in suspense!

November forecast now out from Piers

Following on from my last entry I see that Piers Corbyn has now posted up his forecast for November on his website here. Understandably his totally inaccurate prophecy for last month has disappeared; I imagine that this was very embarrassing to him. As usual his message is quite apocalyptic in tone but it's noticeable that he's resisted the temptation this time of having a news conference so that the likes of 'The Daily Express' can scream at us that the end is nigh. Of course Piers just may be right this time and I would be very happy to acknowledge such a feat on this blog should it happen. But I'm not going to hold my breath in anticipation.

New low point for Piers Corbyn

When I started this blog I quite expected the weather to feature in it now and again, even more so when a notable meteorological event happens in my two counties such as the freak hailstorm at Ottery St Mary. What I hadn't expected though were the frequent referrals I've made to forecasts produced by Piers Corbyn. I'm sorry to harp on about him but as I am someone fairly obsessed with our weather and which way our climate might change I have become very interested in what Piers has to say. A reminder that Mr Corbyn does not go along with the mainstream view on climate change, he is convinced that it is not man's activities driving our climate but that sunspots and magnetic storms on the sun, or the lack of them are the main factors pushing our climate one way or another. As I am someone who instinctively prefers not to follow the herd I am certainly interested in Corbyn's theories but it is difficult to find a convincing narrative from him on the subject. Now Piers reckons that he has the ability to produce an accurate forecast up to year in advance, some considerable claim don't you think. The trouble is his forecasts frequently don't stand up to scrutiny.

On the homepage of his website here he has a summary of the month's expected weather. As it is only for the upcoming month when it is posted there and it is his proud boast that he can forecast up to a year ahead then obviously a vague summary would be just a doddle. In case the October forecast has been taken down by the time you read this I'll just repeat what Piers reckoned October would be like so that it's possible to do a reality check. This is what he says (or said): "October 2008. Unusually Cold with sleet or snow at times on frequent Northerly winds. Often foggy. Milder later ... a major damaging storm." So had did October pan out over the country as a whole. "Unusually Cold" etc - most of the month was pleasantly mild. "Often foggy" - remarkably little fog, don't recall many airports fogbound for instance. "Milder later" - no it wasn't, as we are all aware the last five days or so has seen a blast of arctic air over the country with some snow showers. "... a major damaging storm" - I'm still waiting for this Piers (the hailstorm that had such an impact on Ottery St Mary was very small in area and was obviously not what Piers was talking about).

From the above it can be seen that Piers covering the relatively short period of one month was 100% wrong not just incorrect in some minor detail. This is not just a minor relapse in normally accurate forecasting, if you look at the labels to the right of this piece and scan down to his name you will see a number of references to him. I'm not saying that he's never got anything right but as can be seen from the comparison I've just made it might be a risky business sending him money for his detailed forecasts; all I can do is to say "take his forecasts with a generous pinch of salt".

October forecast from Piers Corbyn

On the 16 August I had written a piece about the rain we were then enduring and I mentioned that I wasn't really keeping up to date regarding the prognostications of maverick forecaster Piers Corbyn. For those interested you can read what he thinks on his website weatheraction.com, or at least it's possible to get a very brief overview of the weather he thinks we are going to get. To get a very detailed monthly forecast from him you have to be prepared to pay for it. He once sent me a complimentary forecast, I'm not sure which month it was now, but I can't expect him to do this on a regular basis, particularly in view of my sharp criticism of him at times!

Piers is his own worst enemy - his ego makes it very difficult to admit his numerous errors, apart from which that wouldn't be good for business I suppose! He is for ever bad mouthing the Met Office and those who believe in man made global warming whereas he should be elaborating on his theory that it's the sun, stupid that drives our climate and it's nothing to do with CO2 levels.

We are well into autumn now so I've had another look at his website. The first thing to note is that the information he displays for free has got increasingly vague, he used to indicate which parts of the month would host the most significant weather events. That info is certainly not in his October 2008 summary. To tempt you to get the full forecast for the month Piers has the following on his home page: "October 2008. Unusually Cold with sleet and snow at times on frequent Northerly winds. Often foggy. Milder later... a major damaging storm." Forecasts from Piers should come with a health warning regarding their veracity. For instance if there is a light dusting of snow for a couple of days in The Cairngorms then that's evidence for the snow part of the forecast. OK I'm exaggerating a little of course but not by so much as you might think.

At the moment his October prophecies aren't looking too promising, but there's still another 24 days to go so don't give up yet. Going back to last month for a moment it will be recalled that it was very much a month of two halves - to start with it was exceptionally wet and then from mid month onward we enjoyed some lovely quiet settled weather. With Piers you very often get the feeling that the end of the world is nigh: he issued a severe weather warning on September 6. He suggested that the deluges of 5th/6th were a foretaste of worse to come from the 11th. Then "The last two days of the month should be finer". On 16th September Piers came out with an update because the blocking high was stopping the nastiness coming in off the Atlantic but his opinion was that this period of settled weather would be short lived. On the 25th he had to issue yet another update to say that the good weather would in fact continue till almost the month end.

For goodness sake Piers you are making short term forecasts now rather than the long term ones you are for ever boasting about. How can I take you seriously?

It's raining yet again

It seems that the weather is taking up too much of this blog but with very strong winds out there and rain tipping down it is a subject I cannot ignore. In fairness it should be noted that yesterday was one of those rare occasions when it was dry throughout, well to teatime anyway. I was able at last to get the lawn cut which at least makes the garden a little more presentable. When I was out at the top end of the village yesterday I noticed several red admirals around a buddleia which is some good news but peacocks and small tortoiseshells continue to be elusive. Anyway that was yesterday, we are now back with the wet stuff with a vengeance - it is looking really autumnal and it's only the sombre green of the foliage of the trees on the other side of the Tamar that's convincing me that it really is summer still and not yet autumn!

In the past I have commented on Piers Corbyn's forecasts on Weatheraction.com and last winter many of his predictions were just about as wrong as they could be. Then for a while he was slipping below my radar but lately I have been looking at his website again. I have to say that the general thrust of his forecast is presently much closer to the reality of the situation; for me the jury is still out regarding the accuracy of his methods though. It is a great shame that he hasn't allowed his techniques to be rigorously examined but I appreciate that his forecasts are a source of income for him and so therefore he doesn't want his "secrets" to come into the public domain. Piers maintains that variations in our climate are driven by activity on the sun (sunspots, magnetic storms) and have nothing to do with human activity. This may or may not be the case but he really does have to present some credible evidence before one can make a judgment.

I think I have mentioned before that he has now quietened down his website, it is far less popular tabloid than it used to be and to me more user friendly. I must try and keep a regular check on him again and see how he fares through the autumn.

Verdict on yesterday's storm

The Met Office had given us several days warning about a severe storm to hit the UK in the early hours of Monday morning and then again later in the day as a second front came through. It was evident that the winds in the southwest were going to be particularly severe; another fairly bad storm is forecast to give Scotland a beating during the next day or so but to have a lesser effect here. These days impending bad weather can get a lot of media hype and there have been occasions when a storm hasn't lived up to expectations as it were.

I think the Met Office had it about right this time. When the shipping forecast for your local area starts using words like "severe gale 9 to violent storm 11" you know it could get a bit draughty! The cocktail of gale force winds, low pressure (causing the sea to be higher than normal) and spring tides always meant that coastal communities would be under threat and localised flooding at places such as Perranporth, Flushing, Looe and Salcombe has occurred. Regarding my own village and many other places in Devon and Cornwall for that matter the direction of the wind can make a big difference. When the direction is south or slightly east of south the wind whistles through this gorge like valley and you know all about it! This time with a westerly component I thought it wasn't that bad but I did confine myself to the relative shelter of the village yesterday.

No mention of Slapton or Torcross in Devon's South Hams on the news. An easterly gale of the same proportions could have led to considerable problems there.

Did our old friend Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com see this storm coming? I'm afraid not! In fact for the 10th he had forecast it being cold with fog and frost and with a light northerly wind and much the same for a few days either side of this date! Piers theories regarding the interaction of sunspot/magnetic storm activity and our planet's climate does merit further consideration. Where I really take issue with him is then trying to deduce our day to day weather from this. Here we are into the second week of March and his forecasts have been consistently wrong in almost every respect since the start of the year. And not just this year but last Christmas as just one other example - then he talked about travel disruption and of course nothing very much out of the ordinary happened weather wise. If only he would separate climate from weather he would be more respected!

'Weatheraction.com' is now back up

In my blog for last Monday I had hinted that perhaps Piers Corbyn, the maverick weatherman, might have given up on his business in view of his very bad predictions of late. This thought had been ignited by the fact that he didn't appear to be using his domain name any longer for his 'Weatheraction' business. So no more entries for Piers, I could spend more time on other stories. How naive I am because he is back now and his current home page is here. My guess is that he had just forgotten to renew his domain name registration.

Having produced a very detailed forecast for January (which was about 95% wrong!) we then got a very slim version of his predictions for February. On his present homepage Piers says "Feb was indeed a month of 'dramatic contrasts of both bitter winter blasts and bursts of Spring', as we forecast" Piers old chap it's ridiculous to pat yourself on the back with such a vague statement, the more important fact is that your forecast of a significant storm mid month was as far from reality as anything could be.

What I am pleased to note is that the 'Weatheraction' homepage now has a much improved and cleaner look than it used to. I won't take any credit for that but I have complained before about the unprofessional appearance it once had. Whilst I can understand your desire to keep your most detailed forecasts out of general public view as they bring in revenue for you I do hope that you are still prepared to put some of your stuff into the freely available public domain.

I would be very happy to publish any notable successes you have with your technique should I become aware of any! I can't say fairer than that.

Piers Corbyn and weatheraction.com

I have blogged a number of times regarding maverick weather forecaster Piers Corbyn. It was always possible to go to his website 'weatheraction.com' and get some indication from his homepage as to what he considered we would get in the forthcoming month. By paying a subscription (I don't know how much) one could see a much more comprehensive forecast, anything up to a year ahead.

His domain name now appears to have been taken over by some concern in America. So either Piers has given up on his business or he is going to reinvent himself on another website. I and one or two other bloggers have been sharply critical of Piers; comparing his more recent prognostications that he has freely publicised with the reality of subsequent events has shown him to be spectacularly wrong. For instance having had a very bad time in January, even with a 'corrected' forecast half way through the month, he then produced a much less detailed summary for February. In it he talked about a "significant storm" mid month. I'll be generous and stretch mid month to include the whole of the second and third weeks. What happened? Most of the country was basking under the benign influence of an anticyclone!

Now remember that people were purchasing his forecasts. And remember too that Piers has been using his techniques for a number of years so one would assume that the quality of his forecasts would be getting ever better. If I had paid him good money I would be far from pleased at his really dreadful predictions of late. In fact you would literally have to believe in the precise opposite to be near the truth.

Significantly Piers would frequently castigate not only the Met Office but those who believe in man made climate change. I wouldn't say that sunspots and magnetic storms have no effect on our weather but as to being the sole drivers of it I can't believe that. Certainly the appalling results we have had from Piers is a vote of no confidence in his theories.

January a dreadful month for Piers Corbyn

Weather forecaster Piers Corbyn, what a controversial man he is! Piers is the chap who claims he can forecast the weather accurately many months in advance, because he tells us the world's weather is driven by what is happening to the sun in terms of sunspots and magnetic storms. An interesting idea if correct but unfortunately I have found his forecasts wide of the mark as I have previously mentioned on this blog. Now in all fairness I hadn't done any long term sustained checks comparing the reality to what Piers was forecasting, I was just looking at some isolated events. However on his 'WeatherAction' website Mr Corbyn has been displaying a moderately detailed forecast for the whole of January on his homepage. Originally issued on 29 December 2007 Piers admitted errors (a rare occurrence for him) and so produced an update on 13 January. This updated forecast was for the remainder of the month only i.e. about two and a half weeks so hardly compares with the long range prophecies of up to a year that he boasts about.

In his forecast at the end of 2007 he was intimating a very cold month with heavy snow in the south/east at times, a prolonged exceptionally cold spell from about the middle of the month and generally less rain than normal. Totally, utterly wrong on all counts Piers! His corrected forecast moved the very cold spell to a later part of the month but stated that winds and snow would be more intense than first forecast. Again wrong. He waffles on about high pressure persisting over the northern British Isles with low pressure down to the south. If this had happened then yes conditions would have been ripe for an icy Siberian blast but the reality has been one of typical Atlantic weather with successive depressions coming in with west or south westerly winds. The jet stream has been where it should be allowing high pressure to the south to nose in now and again. This is the complete opposite to his predictions. To be fair to him he also said in the 29 December forecast that air from the Arctic is likely during the last week of the month. This is starting to happen but my guess is that we are talking about 48 hours or so and is what one would readily expect at this time: a deep Atlantic low moves through and draws in cold north westerlies in its wake, but only briefly before the next depression gives us a drenching.

Someone on the internet, I'm not sure of the link at the moment, is shadowing the forecasts that Piers produces over a reasonably long period to see how well he does on average. This should prove interesting. I've made the comment before about the way Piers presents his forecasts - they are very shrill, he switches font sizes and colours on a whim and his phraseology is appalling, even worse than the tabloids who publish his apocalyptic warnings. This alone undermines my confidence in him. He also has a massive ego to satisfy it seems, or maybe he can't accept that others aren't attuned to his theories. He also angrily condemns the Met Office on a regular basis and those scientists who support the theory of man made climate change.

In summary he has got it very wrong even trying to do the relatively short term of a fortnight ahead. I rather like people as a rule who are prepared to go out on a limb but Piers you have really blown it this time.

Anchovies and climate change

This has been a good news story in relation to fishermen operating out of Brixham. Just lately they have been catching substantial quantities of anchovies, for which there is no quota limit. These fish are a long way north of their normal location: usually they are to be found around the Iberian Peninsula. I've noticed increasingly frequent reports of the ocean's more tropical inhabitants being spotted off our coast. Whereas to a certain extent the variability of our weather is masking our perception of climate change in the UK it is to nature and particularly the oceans that we need to look.

Just imagine for a moment if this year we replicated the weather of 2007 with regard to sunshine, cloudiness and rainfall but that the temperature was one degree centigrade warmer throughout. Our perception would be of two identical years, we would be oblivious of the rise in temperature. However in nature things are very different and I believe this movement northward of 'tropical' fish is very indicative of a change in climate.

In my previous post I had yet another go at Piers Corbyn who just happens to be a denier of man made climate change. I try not to be swayed by arguments that don't have much backup but here is the core of my belief: Planet Earth tries to get into some sort of equilibrium but all manner of things such as volcanoes and earthquakes are forever throwing a spanner in the works. The activities of man of course have huge potential to upset any balance. Unlike a certain candidate for the US presidency I don't believe this planet was created 6000 years ago, more like 4.6 billion years ago according to the scientists. Now for me 4.6 billion years is a time period that I can't imagine. However let's equate that vast period to a year on Earth. If one does the arithmetic it will be found that all the oil that has been burnt by mankind so far has occurred in the very final second before midnight on December 31st. I think that this fact combined with the simply enormous increase in human population over the same period is bound to have had some effect on the Earth and it is pure arrogance to assume otherwise. Here ends the first lesson.

Piers Corbyn is at it again

I had hoped that I could get through this month without referring to maverick weather forecaster Piers Corbyn. Fat chance! Having made some 'end of the World' type prophecies for December in the UK (which I'm glad to say didn't materialise) we now have a prediction for January: "The average temperature for January as a whole will be close to freezing: 0.8C (33.4F) at best."

First comment - what part of the UK are you referring to Piers? I can say with a fair degree of confidence that average temperature for the month in the Cairngorms will be lower than that in the Isles of Scilly. He is a little more specific about the lowest projected temperatures, talking about -17 degrees possible in the Midlands in a cold snap to come later this month. He will certainly need these sort of figures if his overall average is to be seen. At the moment things don't look good for him with another mild week in prospect. However a month is a very long time in terms of British weather and a short lived very cold snap is more than possible.

I don't unreservedly condemn the techniques used by Piers, although it would help if he was to explain them in some detail and encourage independent verification. For instance his saying that we weren't going to have a boiling hot summer in 2007 was fair comment; the fact that the jet stream was so far south last summer resulting in so much rain over England especially may well have something to do with solar activity. That doesn't sound unreasonable. But it's his predictions of apocalyptic storms that is getting to me. Piers makes predictions from a very long time ahead, something conventional meteorologists would never do. So why do I have so little faith in him? Here are my reasons in summary:

• So far as I know he hasn't presented his techniques to anyone for independent review. I know this is difficult because of his commercial interests.
• Although making predictions sometimes months in advance he will wait till a very few days before the significant weather event and make noticeable adjustments to his forecast e.g. he will revise the timing by several days or move the path of a storm to a different latitude. In other words he is turning a very long range forecast to a very short one. He can't have it both ways - he shouldn't be so specific in his time envelope or location if his forecasts have to be tinkered with in the way they have been to try and gain credence.
• When things go wrong he doesn't like to hold his hands up and admit a mistake.
• It may be that some of his predictions in broad brush terms have a semblance of truth in them but none of his many apocalyptic predictions have come to pass. But I suppose if he keeps trying it will happen eventually.
• His press releases from someone who is supposed to have a scientific background are some of the worst I've seen. I've noted comments that newspapers such as 'The Daily Express' have added their own measure of hype to his prognostications. However when you read on the internet some of Corbyn's output in his releases well he can put a tabloid to shame. His selection of words and use of varying font sizes and colours doesn't accord with my idea of a calm rational scientist, in fact his outpourings just shriek at you.

I think that Piers is in the last chance saloon if he wishes to gain any respect for his ideas. If we don't get a really cold spell later this month then any credibility he might have will disappear.

The weather forecast for Christmas

Exactly three weeks ago I penned a piece under the title "Differing weather forecasts for Christmas". I wrote this because I was aware of two very different expectations on the weather the country would experience at this time. So on one side we had the BBC weather centre represented by John Hammond who, using conventional forecasting techniques, used the phrase "More settled conditions develop" in reference to the second half of the month. Against him was Piers Corbyn whose firm 'Weatheraction' forecasts over a much longer time span and insists that it is the activity of the sun that drives our weather.

Time then for a reality check - how did they do? Both pretty badly I would say. So far as I can see it was a typical Christmas for weather, a mix of some rain with drier spells between, windy at times but not the severe storm predicted by Piers with attendant problems of travellers having massive disruptions. Regarding John Hammond, if he had applied the "settled conditions" to the middle two weeks there would have been little cause for complaint. In other words he was about a week out.

Once again it's the weather itself having the last laugh. Clever we may be but not that clever in getting medium to long term forecasts correct.

Differing weather forecasts for Christmas

Unusually for me I'm planning to be away from home, visiting Dorset in fact, over the Christmas period. One of those rare occasions I forsake my two counties! So what sort of weather will occur over the festive season? In the blue corner we have genial John Hammond on the BBC Weather website here making his predictions for the whole of December. For the second half of the month it's a case of "More settled conditions develop" according to John. Now it has to be said that a fortnight is a very long time in terms of UK weather so that it would be possible to have a big storm over say three days of the holiday period with the rest of the period dominated by anticyclonic weather. If that happened he could possibly claim success looking at the two weeks as a whole. In other words a long range forecast from the Met Office can be what you decide to make it!

In the red corner we have Piers Corbyn and his company 'Weatheraction'. Piers puts his neck on the line with his very specific forecast as to when severe weather events will occur. See here for his ideas about December (incidentally you can see why I say "In the red corner", his pages on the internet just scream at you although some of them are far worse than this - it puts my back up!). He is quite correct about the stormy weather we are enduring this weekend; however I don't know whether that was in his long range forecast from many months ago or just in his update at the start of December. I'm more interested in his anticipations for the 23rd to the 26th. All being well I shall return home on the 27th of the month by which time I shall be able to make a judgement on the accuracy of his prophecy.

I have been critical of Piers Corbyn in the past (scroll down the right hand side of this blog page and click on his name to read everything I've written about him so far) so this Christmas will be a chance for him to redeem himself.

Piers Corbyn still getting it wrong

We certainly had rain and strong winds on Sunday morning but, as explained in a recent post, the full force of the storm was never going to be felt in my part of the village because of the combination of wind direction and local topography. However one or two places in the peninsula did see a maximum gust of 75 mph.

A couple of weather related incidents in Devon that occurred on that day are worth recording. A young lad from Barbrook in North Devon fell into the swollen West Lyn River where it tumbles down on its final mile to Lynmouth. His father just wearing coat and pyjamas rushed to the scene and waded into the river; such was the force of the current they were both carried several hundred yards downstream until the son was able to grab hold of a rock. It was about an hour before a rescue could be completed and miraculously they both survived.

Further south in the county a lady living at Starcross on the west side of the Exe estuary was the recipient of a small tornado. The whirlwind picked up a trampoline that normally would take several people to lift and waltzed it down to the end of the road bumping in to several cars on its journey! Happily there were no injuries as a result of that event. It's a fact as I understand it that this country is very prone to tornado formation but usually they don't become newsworthy items.

From the foregoing it can be seen that it had been a blustery few hours and in fact had been well forecast by the met office for a few days. Windy though it was it certainly wasn't remarkable in the sense that a storm of that magnitude could be expected any year.

Now Piers Corbyn who insists that such weather is driven by sunspots and other solar activity and has nothing to do with 'Global Warming' reckons to have predicted this storm for a long time. He had gone public on this but his prediction was that it would be between November 24 and 28 and that we should expect gusts from 90 to 100mph! In other words comparable with the nighttime storm of 1987 (the Michael Fish Hurricane) or the daytime storm of January 1990 when for a time all of Cornwall lost its power from the National Grid. Shortly before last Sunday's gales he had come out with some reason I didn't really comprehend as to why this weather event had slowed down and was a few days late in arriving. So concerned had he been about the strength of the impending storm that he had been flashing warnings to the government about it. A personal thing but I find the way he words his press releases very irritating.

Piers Corbyn certainly polarises opinion; I would say that his detractors feel happier at the moment than his disciples.