Random thoughts on climate change

I'm someone who takes a considerable interest in the environment and is concerned about the future of this planet. With the Climate Change Conference now taking place in Copenhagen I think it's time to make a few observations - for what they are worth. But before I start lets get rid of the use of the word "deniers". I don't know how the term came into being in connection with climate change but the most well known use of this word relates to the Holocaust and I think it's pretty disgraceful to use such a word here. For the purpose of this blogpost I shall call those who believe in man-made global warming "believers" and those who take the opposite viewpoint "sceptics". There are of course many people, of which yours truly is one, who have yet to be convinced by the arguments made by other side. Anyway, here are a few thoughts:

• "The science of man-made global warming is settled"

This is absolutely not the case. A number of observations and theories might point in one direction but this is most definitely not proof positive. It might make lots of sense to use the precautionary principle and try to stabilise the amount of man produced carbon dioxide but that is not to say that the science is right.

• The man on the Clapham Omnibus knows the answer - not
  

This might offend you gentle reader and sorry if it does but huge numbers of ordinary people will proffer an opinion on the veracity or otherwise of man-made global warming. Sadly 99.9% really have no valid idea, many of them just go by their own hunches.

• Our viewpoint might be influenced by our lifestyle

For those of us living in the developed world our feelings on the subject might just be influenced by whether or not we have a high consumption, high carbon use lifestyle, or maybe we don't live like that. Human nature being the way it is if one is the sort of person who say makes two or three holiday flights a year, uses appliances unnecessarily, drive a large uneconomic car out of choice and so on then you are perhaps likely to be more sceptical than someone who uses much less carbon. In other words enjoying a particularly comfortable and materialistic lifestyle is something such folk would be loath to give up and therefore their predisposition might well be towards scepticism. Although I personally am not into high consumption I'm not here to condemn those who are nor do I think I merit praise, it's just the way I naturally live combined with the circumstances which have influenced the direction my life has taken.

• "The climate has always changed and what is happening now is no different"
  

Yes, the climate has always fluctuated and so the sceptics will argue that changes occurring right now to the Earth's climate is just a continuation of this process. They will talk about the "Medieval Warm Period", the "Little Ice Age", the Thames freezing over in winter, the Romans growing grapes in England, Vikings settling in Greenland and so on to back up their statement. The "believers" need to accept these happenings which they used to be reluctant to do. However this is the really important thing that hardly anybody bothers to talk about: the reason(s) for the aforementioned climatic variations aren't understood - there are theories naturally but no proof - therefore it follows that any present day climatic change might be a part of this cyclical movement but it might not. What I'm saying is that we can't explain why the climate keeps changing so logic says that what happens now may be part of this regular variation. But equally it may not so of course it is still possible that we have runaway global warming. In a nutshell past unexplained events can't determine what will happen in the near future. I must say it frustrates me that people don't want to see the clear logic that I have just expressed.

These then are just a few points I wanted to throw into the mix. One final observation to make: it has become really noticeable how shrill the two sides have become in trying to push their particular agendas. Rather than the likes of George Monbiot or Piers Corbyn name calling those who disagree with them can we have some reasoned debate - please!

A little snow yesterday, now gone

Following on from my last post it decided to snow here on the following day i.e. yesterday. Nothing to get very excited about I must say but in the early morning there was a heavy shower and, as always, I'm fascinated by the rapidity of build up of snow thickness. I recall being told by it must have been my geography teacher that one foot of snow is equivalent to an inch of rain. Things have warmed up a little and I was surprised very early this morning to hear the sound of gentle rain whilst I was still under the duvet. So our little bit of snow has now washed away and it seems we may be somewhat too near to the south coast for the next lot of precipitation to be the white stuff.

Although obviously the recent weather has been colder than we have experienced through most of the last few winters I don't reckon it has been anything like as chilly as in decades past. With the predominance of easterly winds I would have expected much lower temperatures. A point that has to be made is that many of us now have the luxury of a softer lifestyle - think central heating, think double glazing, think car heaters that are efficient, think the waterproof clothing now available and compare the way we lived 20, 30, 40 years ago. In other words our routine day to day activities don't involve us really confronting the cold in the way they once did. I can readily recall winters with burst pipes, ice on the inside of the bedroom windows and a rug to cover the knees when sat in the back of a car! And of course we wore short trousers until we got into our teens and the schoolgirls would be in skirts, it was almost unknown too for adult women to be seen in trousers (or "slacks" as my mother would say). Yes we were a hardy lot but I mustn't drift into nostalgia!

Sorry, I've gone a bit off topic in my last paragraph. Back on the rails now thinking about the positioning of high and low pressure areas and the direction of wind I still maintain that the temperatures ought to have been lower. So if the planet is warming this might explain why although cold here it is not so cold as one should expect. The other thing I must mention is that 'down under' in the south east of Australia they are experiencing record high temperatures, over 40 degrees centigrade. Phew!

Anchovies and climate change

This has been a good news story in relation to fishermen operating out of Brixham. Just lately they have been catching substantial quantities of anchovies, for which there is no quota limit. These fish are a long way north of their normal location: usually they are to be found around the Iberian Peninsula. I've noticed increasingly frequent reports of the ocean's more tropical inhabitants being spotted off our coast. Whereas to a certain extent the variability of our weather is masking our perception of climate change in the UK it is to nature and particularly the oceans that we need to look.

Just imagine for a moment if this year we replicated the weather of 2007 with regard to sunshine, cloudiness and rainfall but that the temperature was one degree centigrade warmer throughout. Our perception would be of two identical years, we would be oblivious of the rise in temperature. However in nature things are very different and I believe this movement northward of 'tropical' fish is very indicative of a change in climate.

In my previous post I had yet another go at Piers Corbyn who just happens to be a denier of man made climate change. I try not to be swayed by arguments that don't have much backup but here is the core of my belief: Planet Earth tries to get into some sort of equilibrium but all manner of things such as volcanoes and earthquakes are forever throwing a spanner in the works. The activities of man of course have huge potential to upset any balance. Unlike a certain candidate for the US presidency I don't believe this planet was created 6000 years ago, more like 4.6 billion years ago according to the scientists. Now for me 4.6 billion years is a time period that I can't imagine. However let's equate that vast period to a year on Earth. If one does the arithmetic it will be found that all the oil that has been burnt by mankind so far has occurred in the very final second before midnight on December 31st. I think that this fact combined with the simply enormous increase in human population over the same period is bound to have had some effect on the Earth and it is pure arrogance to assume otherwise. Here ends the first lesson.

Intense rain - an indication of climate change?

As I type this the skies are leaden outside, and the early darkness to the evening is intensified by the dark dense green of the summer foliage which abounds in this part of the valley. Although quite windy at the moment we have so far been spared the very heavy deluges that places like Kent and the Midlands are enduring.

So the question is this: are the incidents of flooding an indication of the much talked about climate change? First we have to accept that there have always been extreme weather events in this country. I'm old enough to recall the Lynmouth flood disaster of 1952 and the devastating North Sea floods of the following year, both sadly with significant numbers of deaths. Yes we always have had freakish weather but to me it seems as if almost every year now some part of the country has such heavy rain that many properties are severely flooded.

One of the problems I find in making comparisons with yesteryear is that rainfall figures quoted are usually for a 24 hour period. What seems to be happening is that the rain is more intense but over a shorter period - I can't help thinking that 4 hour comparisons would be more meaningful. In fact the statistics I would find particularly interesting are year on year comparisons of intense 4 or possibly 6 hour rain conditions and also from insurers the numbers of homes so badly damaged by the weather that their occupants have to seek temporary accommodation elsewhere. Also how many cars get written off each year because of water damage. Publishing these sorts of figures would I feel give some sort of indication of the economic cost of the weather.

But this is where one has to be careful. As more houses are built, more gardens paved over for the parking of cars, more roads constructed then the potential is there for more flooding. You have to be cautious with statistics!

Climate change is certainly taking place (whether man made or part of a natural cycle is an argument I'm not venturing into at the moment!) and the increase in average temperatures, the reduction in frost and snow, the long periods of dry weather such as we had in April this year and the increased prevalence of outbreaks of almost tropical rain all indicate this. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms seem to be on the increase as well.

One thing is for sure: the fierceness of the weather comes at some cost to our comfort and well being and affects the economy in numerous ways.