January a dreadful month for Piers Corbyn

Weather forecaster Piers Corbyn, what a controversial man he is! Piers is the chap who claims he can forecast the weather accurately many months in advance, because he tells us the world's weather is driven by what is happening to the sun in terms of sunspots and magnetic storms. An interesting idea if correct but unfortunately I have found his forecasts wide of the mark as I have previously mentioned on this blog. Now in all fairness I hadn't done any long term sustained checks comparing the reality to what Piers was forecasting, I was just looking at some isolated events. However on his 'WeatherAction' website Mr Corbyn has been displaying a moderately detailed forecast for the whole of January on his homepage. Originally issued on 29 December 2007 Piers admitted errors (a rare occurrence for him) and so produced an update on 13 January. This updated forecast was for the remainder of the month only i.e. about two and a half weeks so hardly compares with the long range prophecies of up to a year that he boasts about.

In his forecast at the end of 2007 he was intimating a very cold month with heavy snow in the south/east at times, a prolonged exceptionally cold spell from about the middle of the month and generally less rain than normal. Totally, utterly wrong on all counts Piers! His corrected forecast moved the very cold spell to a later part of the month but stated that winds and snow would be more intense than first forecast. Again wrong. He waffles on about high pressure persisting over the northern British Isles with low pressure down to the south. If this had happened then yes conditions would have been ripe for an icy Siberian blast but the reality has been one of typical Atlantic weather with successive depressions coming in with west or south westerly winds. The jet stream has been where it should be allowing high pressure to the south to nose in now and again. This is the complete opposite to his predictions. To be fair to him he also said in the 29 December forecast that air from the Arctic is likely during the last week of the month. This is starting to happen but my guess is that we are talking about 48 hours or so and is what one would readily expect at this time: a deep Atlantic low moves through and draws in cold north westerlies in its wake, but only briefly before the next depression gives us a drenching.

Someone on the internet, I'm not sure of the link at the moment, is shadowing the forecasts that Piers produces over a reasonably long period to see how well he does on average. This should prove interesting. I've made the comment before about the way Piers presents his forecasts - they are very shrill, he switches font sizes and colours on a whim and his phraseology is appalling, even worse than the tabloids who publish his apocalyptic warnings. This alone undermines my confidence in him. He also has a massive ego to satisfy it seems, or maybe he can't accept that others aren't attuned to his theories. He also angrily condemns the Met Office on a regular basis and those scientists who support the theory of man made climate change.

In summary he has got it very wrong even trying to do the relatively short term of a fortnight ahead. I rather like people as a rule who are prepared to go out on a limb but Piers you have really blown it this time.

The power of blogging

Blogs are an extremely useful and powerful part of the internet and I want to give just three examples to illustrate this.

First of all there is the recent resignation of Peter Hain from his job as a government minister. There is a blogger, Paul Staines, writing under the name of 'Guido Fawkes' who claims, with I think a lot of justification, that his exposure of the background to Hain's attempts to finance his deputy leadership bid led to his ultimate downfall. Not something that could be proved perhaps but the circumstantial evidence stacks up. Staines is well known as being very right wing but he was quite in order I believe to take Peter Hain to task in the way he has. Interestingly with Labour in power it's the right wing blogs that make the running at the moment so far as politics are concerned. It could be argued that it is much easier to go on the attack when your blog is in sympathy with the opposition; it would be interesting to note whether left wing bloggers gain the ascendancy if the Tories form the next administration. One thing I intensely dislike about Guido's blog and many similar is the fact that they permit anonymous comments. Many a time they include unnecessary bad language - I am not a prude and have been known to let go the odd expletive when under stress but to use intemporate language in blog comments, no! The other point to make is that it's possible for a blogger to boost his piece by commenting himself anonymously! I'm not accusing anyone, just stating that the potential is there.

For examples two and three I will refer to my own blog, said he modestly. The second example is my very recent entry on the discovery of the site of a Roman fort at Calstock. I think I was the first person to put this information into the public domain (thanks Marlene for tipping me off!) as the press release came out later. This is not to pat myself on the back, it is just to illustrate the point that a blogger can come across some interesting information and publish it before the main stream media does. Moving to the third example I go back to my old favourite 'MSC Napoli'. I had no idea when I started that one particular story would lead to over 40 entries with plenty more to come. By recording so many developments in this fascinating saga and all in one place it is possible for the reader to follow the sequence of events and in a concise form. Maybe one day a book will be written on it - I hope so, wish I had the time myself - but meanwhile a blog is a useful and accessible source of information on the subject.

One other point that seldom gets aired is the fact that in future years today's blogs will prove a fascinating window into life as it is now, and freely accessible to people from all over the world. Because we are right in the middle of the 'Communications Revolution' we may not totally realise the profound effect it is having on civilisation.

Napoli enquiry moves closer

If you have (hopefully!) been following the unfolding story of the MSC Napoli on this blog over the past 12 months you will be aware of Devon County Council's intention to hold a public enquiry. Although the Marine Accident Investigation Branch have been delving into the incident the government has said it will not hold a public enquiry. The national media have thought this would be the end of the story. Not so! Devon County Council to their credit realise that useful lessons can be learnt by holding their own public enquiry. The Executive Committee will be asked next week to agree a plan for an independently-chaired enquiry; following this preliminary gathering of evidence will start.

This has echoes of the Foot and Mouth outbreak in 2001 that had such an awful outcome for Devon's farmers. Following that event the County Council had a public enquiry under the able chairmanship of Ian Mercer. I hope that either he or someone of similar standing will oversee this one.

Possibly the best crisps ever

I try not to buy crisps as a regular item in my food shopping but recently the Western Morning News have been providing a packet as a sales promotion for those who pick up a paper. At least this has happened in my neck of the woods. Part of the reason for their generosity might be their recent hike in the price of the paper - up 5 pence to 45p, Saturday edition stays at 65p. However I should point out that the WMN are keen to promote locally produced healthy food.

The product they have been handing out is a packet of 'Burts hand fried mixed root chips'. I can give three cheers for these for three good reasons: firstly, they are made in Devon, just outside Plymouth to be more precise; secondly, the ingredients consist of parsnips, carrots, beetroot, sunflower oil, sea salt and nothing else; last but not least, they taste absolutely scrummy! As I said these were a giveaway so I don't how their price compares with better known varieties.

Burts have a lively and amusing website here. I'm not that keen on animated websites as a rule but this one is an exception, worth a look I would say.

Recognition for 'Land Girls' and 'Lumberjills'

At long last surviving members of the Women's Land Army (Land Girls) and Women's Timber Corps (Lumberjills) can apply for a badge in recognition of their valiant efforts in the World Wars. As so many young men went into the services a yawning gap was left to fill in respect of our labour intensive farming and timber cropping. Although the work to be done was physically demanding and conditions anything but comfortable many young women volunteered to help out. Now very many of these girls came from an urban background and really had no idea of the workings of a farm and found themselves on a very steep learning curve.

Thinking about land girls in the second world war for instance they had to get stuck in to such jobs as milking cows, sowing and harvesting crops and driving tractors. If you think the last mentioned was a cushy job remember that tractors of that time didn't have cabs so you were permanently exposed to the elements; also most if not all tractors of that era didn't have electric starters so hand cranking a starting handle was the way to get the recalcitrant machines going.

We certainly owe them a debt of gratitude.

Roman fort discovered at Calstock

Last Saturday evening I received word about the amazing discovery of a Roman fort just west of the Tamar at Calstock! Peter Claughton from Exeter University has been researching the story of the lead and silver mining on the Bere Peninsula for some time; he had been aware from the records of some sort of silver smelting operation in the vicinity of Calstock Church just across the Tamar from these particular mining lodes. Geophysical surveying was revealing an interesting anomaly in a field just south of the church and now an archaeological dig is in process. Apart from some evidence of smelting the big prize has been these totally unknown Roman remains.

I was in the area anyway today so made a point of visiting the site and was pleased to receive a "conducted tour". Just in time too as the excavation has to be backfilled by the end of the week.

Wood anemone flowers early

A particularly pleasing sight in Spring is to see an abundance of wood anemones in flower. Now January should be far too early to see them but we were amazed to see one fully out yesterday (the 23rd). This location, right on the bank of the Tamar, is a good spot for both wild daffodils and wood anemones in Spring and a joy they are when in bloom but how come that just one anemone is doing its thing whereas there is no sign yet of any of its companions showing. Strange thing nature at times. It was pleasing on the way home to hear a mistle thrush singing. I find that wildlife can give enormous pleasure even with the more common species, and in any month as well.

Being Home Secretary can be a lonely job

Yes being Home Secretary can be a very lonely job I think. Although one of the top ranking jobs in government it is in some ways a poisoned chalice. The 'Question Time' programme on BBC TV started again last Thursday and Home Secretary Jacqui Smith was one of the panellists. Almost throughout the show she appeared very downcast but right at the end of the programme one of the others on the stage said they agreed with her. With that her face momentarily lit up and she mouthed a "thank you" to her rescuer (I don't remember who it was I'm afraid).

Ms Smith has just been in the news with the revelation in the 'Sunday Times' that she would be afraid at going out at midnight in London not only in Hackney but in upmarket Kensington and Chelsea as well! This doesn't seem to reflect too well on the past 10 years of this government's attempts at reducing crime. I don't know how I would react to finding myself in a melee of alcohol fuelled humanity at midnight in a metropolis, something I've not experienced for myself - yes I know I've led a sheltered life! Conversely I have no fear whatsoever about being alone, in the dark, in the countryside at midnight, something that might worry those who have never been in that environment.

Going back to the Jacqui Smith article she apparently said in reference to people wandering around at midnight "I just don't think that's a thing that people do, is it, really?" Well sorry Jacqui you really are out of touch with the real world, a criticism of many a government minister I have to say. Because of her position she has police protection so I would suggest the occasional foray at this unearthly hour just to see the reality of life.

I have long been a critic of ministers who have never done a "real job" and who find themselves cut off from the way people live today. Time for them to get out and about, in fact if they didn't get bogged down with all the new legislation and bureaucracy so prevalent today and got a better perception of people's hopes and problems we would be a better country.

MSC Napoli - one year since beaching

Here we are then - entry number 43 believe it or not on the ongoing MSC Napoli story. I thought I had better record the fact that it is now one year since the Napoli was run aground in Lyme Bay just off the beach at Branscombe. The mass media were intimating a couple of days ago that Friday was the anniversary of her arrival off Branscombe. Yes it was 12 months to the day that she got into serious trouble to the south of the Cornish coast with her crew rescued in dramatic conditions but that's not what most of them were saying. I wouldn't boast for a moment that I've always got my facts correct but there does seem to be a somewhat casual indifference in today's media to get incontestable details spot on. OK rant over!

Napoli, or rather the remainder of the stern section, now has a heavy list to starboard. I guess this is not too unexpected as there were almost sure to be a southerly gale or two over the winter. Although there is a lull in proceedings out in the bay the powers that be are reviewing the way the remainder of the ship should be removed. Lifting the whole in one go onto a barge would be a nice option but it's thought that her heeling over might preclude this idea. They are still optimistic about the final removal by the end of April. With Easter in March this year bank holiday visitors to Branscombe will it seems still be able to see her.

Radio Devon & Radio Cornwall celebrate

There was a bit of a birthday bash for BBC Radio Cornwall and BBC Radio Devon yesterday as the two stations celebrated their quarter century of being on air. It took a little while for them to find their feet but now they have become part of many people's lives. Of course there have been, and are, commercial stations around but the latter lose out to the extent of not having well defined geography whereas a radio station for a single county is ideal. Or is it? Being so close to the border I want to be in tune with both counties, however reception is much better here for 'Devon' than 'Cornwall' so that is the station to which I would normally listen. I can remember the programme 'Morning SouWest' which preceded today's local radio set up and very good it was too.

When you are passionate about both Devon and Cornwall it is a little frustrating not to have that joint programme early in the morning. However both ITV and BBC provide good quality local TV news in the early evening for the whole area. Having said that I am still concerned about the ITV plan to possibly lump our region with another which would be a very retrograde step.

Signs of Spring on the way

Yesterday morning there was a brief respite from the perpetual dampness that seems to afflict the Tamar Valley at this time of year. Needing a variety of vegetables and some free range eggs I went walkabout to a roadside stall just short of Calstock. This easy stroll of about 4 miles in total is off the main road; one sees the occasional vehicle but not enough traffic to spoil things. Apart from the benefit of exercise and fresh air it was a good chance to see what signs there were of the local flora coming into flower.

There were a few celandines out although not the first of the year by any means, they seem to be plentiful in this area but it wont be till next month that we will see carpets of them I guess. One or two examples of red campion, herb robert and hogweed were on display but what I particularly wanted to note was the progress of the crocuses in Calstock's churchyard which I pass en route. A small number of them were just starting to show yellow, when they all come out it is quite something to see. Just outside the south wall of the churchyard is an early spot for violets, some of these were in flower but I had seen these on an earlier walk.

The Tamar Valley was justifiably famous for its daffodils but many of the fields on their steep slopes are now abandoned. Although this land has reverted to scrub and woodland the daffodils pop up each spring. Too early for the varieties here to be in flower but certainly there are many bulbs above ground now. Providing we avoid a long cold snap then come March we should see those wonderful sheets of gold that makes this area even more special.

Every season can offer something but it's the renewal of life in spring that I think gives something extra to that time of year.

Chief Constable Stephen Otter one year on

On the 13th of January last year I mentioned the fact that Stephen Otter, the new Chief Constable of Devon and Cornwall Police, was on the point of taking up that post and I expressed the hope that morale could be restored in the force. So how has the new chief done over the past 12 months? I am always wary about official statistics but it would seem that their have been some fairly significant gains: crime detection rate - up, victims of crime who are 'satisfied' by the level of service provided - up, overall public confidence in the force - up, recorded crime - lower.

When someone is leading a large organisation such as the Devon and Cornwall Police then there are what I call the two vital and linked 'M words' which matter so much: these words are 'Morale' and 'Motivation'. I very strongly believe that almost everyone will react positively to what they need to do when morale is high and motivation is there. From my first viewing of Mr Otter I had a feeling that he would be good in these essential areas. He also has an excellent media presence, important in this very visible age.

Having personally worked in both high and low morale situations I'm only too aware of the importance of morale and, at the moment, things seem to be on the up with our Police. Let's hope that continues.

Fault lines in free bus fare scheme

Those of us over 60 or registered disabled have had the opportunity to take advantage of a scheme whereby we can use the bus service for free, at least in our own local authority area. Now the government is rolling out plans to make the process nationwide so that theoretically I could go from the Tamar Valley to Newcastle for instance without paying for a fare. (Yes I know that I would have to have accommodation on the way as I don't think our bus services are quite up to covering such a distance in one day!)

However, as with most ideas hatched in Whitehall, the scheme has practical difficulties. One of these was flagged up on the westcountry bit of yesterday's 'Politics Show' on BBC1. Understandably the powers that be don't want the free bus fare to apply during the morning commute but amazingly have set this time to be up to 9.30 am. I can't see why this shouldn't be 9 o'clock, 9.30 seems awfully late to me! However transport minister Rosie Winterton said that councils have some flexibility here and can vary the time. The programme drew attention to an anomaly at the village of Ashreigney, one of those many small habitations in what I call the forgotten part of mid Devon between Dartmoor and Exmoor. Time was when Ashreigney had sufficient shops for day to day purchases but that's all changed now. The TV item concerned a lady, a senior citizen, who has to get the bus to Torrington to do her shopping. One problem - the bus departs just before 9.30 so she has to pay full fare. But no difficulty for her friend who joins the bus at the nearby hamlet of Riddlecombe from which point the bus departs at 9.32! It has to be said that this bus isn't exactly crowded with commuters in this sparsely populated part of Devon. My impression from the report is that here is something that really needs sorting out.

Another facet of the free bus scheme which is causing a lot of worry for local councils is this: by some formula central government is allocating chunks of money to these councils which may, or may not, cover their payments to the bus companies concerned. It seems to me that for most of the normal council services it is possible within reason to estimate and keep control of their annual budgets to a reasonable extent. But, as with the 'pay as you throw' idea, the free bus fares will throw up many imponderables. One of these already mentioned is the fact that we are a holiday area in Devon and Cornwall and it wouldn't be surprising if many elderly visitors from other parts took advantage of the scheme for their travel, and why not? It will be a nightmare for our local authorities to try and get their sums right methinks.

As yet I haven't joined the scheme but must get round to doing it and reduce my car use.

'Hugh's Chicken Run'

'Hugh's Chicken Run' - this was the name of 3 programmes held over the past three evenings on channel 4 as part of a food season. Unfortunately I didn't see episode two on Tuesday but the first and last programmes turned out to be sufficient to get the drift. In essence we had Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall (who I shall refer to as HFW from now on in if you don't mind) putting forward the case for more naturally reared chickens for the table as opposed to the very cheap factory produced articles loved by supermarkets and consumers alike. HFW did his best to convert the good folk in the East Devon town of Axminster to change their buying habits from the typically two chickens for £5 in the local Tesco and Co-op supermarkets to the more naturally prepared bird costing a good deal more.

HFW went for a three pronged attack: in no particular order I'll summarise them as follows -

• He acquired an old sizable chicken shed which he split into two. Purchasing day old chicks half were kept on an intensive system and killed out at 39 days. In order to obtain the required rapid gain in weight daylight was simulated by keeping the lights on for 23 and a half hours out of 24 and no outside access was given to the birds. Typically stocking density is 17 chickens to the square metre with this system. One of the biggest welfare problems is that of leg troubles as the bird isn't designed to carry the sort of weight it develops in the very short time span. Those few chickens that had this problem were removed and humanely destroyed, even to the extent of one bird that was just three days off the cull. The other half of the shed was employed as a free range unit with lower stocking density and access to grass outside. These latter went to slaughter at 56 days. HFW had some trouble finding an experienced stockman to run the unit but eventually a chap from Northern Ireland was prepared to put his head above the parapet. The reasoning for this whole exercise was to show and contrast the two types of chicken rearing to the public.
• HFW wanted to engage the major supermarkets in discussions about chickens being sold up to a welfare standard rather than down to a price. By and large they ignored his entreaties for meetings: Tesco kept half promising things that didn't materialise, Waitrose lent a sympathetic ear toward the end and I think ultimately Sainsbury were prepared to listen to his suggestions. Tesco have a store at Axminster and following a misunderstanding between HFW and their local manager fences were mended and the store participated in a week of promoting free range chickens which was partially successful.
• A further interesting challenge instigated by HFW was to engage with the residents on a low income estate in the town to look after some of his birds with the ultimate aim of killing and cooking them. A disused part of a local allotment was employed for the purpose with the residents erecting fencing, setting up a chicken house and generally looking after the birds. Uncomfortable viewing for some maybe but the filming of these people being shown how to kill out their birds was included.

From a personal perspective there was little in the programmes that I wasn't aware of but I am very conscious of the enormous disconnect for many people between the purchase of food in a supermarket and what happens to said food before it arrives looking so clinically perfect in the shops. I don't relish the sight of any form of animal or bird being slaughtered but it is absolutely right that viewers should be informed about what happens - no holds barred. It could be a few more become vegetarian!

All in all this mini series flagged up some important questions. well done to the residents of Axminster for being prepared to be on film.

Tragic death of Stephanie in Plymouth gas blast

Yesterday morning, the eighth of January, should have been the start of just another day for 9 year old Stephanie Hammacott as she and her mother walked to the local school at Southway on the north side of Plymouth. Tragically Stephanie happened to be just in the wrong place at that time. As she walked past a house, one of a block of four, a massive gas blast took place and the young girl was showered by debris from the property which was all but demolished by the explosion. Despite the best efforts of a man and a female nurse to save her Stephanie lost her life.

What is even more awful for the family is that her mother was nearby when it happened. For all of us who wouldn't have known Stephanie, shocked though we may be by the death of someone so young, the event will leave our consciousness. But spare a thought now for her mother and father and other close family. This utter tragedy will be with them for the rest of their lives. It is an incredibly fine line between life and death sometimes. Reports suggest that there was a smell of gas in the vicinity prior to the explosion. The elderly couple who occupied the home do not appear to have been seriously hurt - I guess with the wall bursting outwards they were in a (relatively) safe place.

I join the very many others in extending condolences to Stephanie's family.

Exeter Cathedral to charge entry fee

From March 24th Exeter Cathedral will be charging tourists an entry fee. This idea had I think been mooted some time ago and now, with voluntary donations falling, it's been decided that there is no alternative but to charge those who wish to look at this venerable old building. Running costs are huge, over £1 million a year apparently, so they have decided to bite the bullet. The charge will be £4 per person, reduced to £2 for students and pensioners whilst children under 16 who are accompanied by an adult will be admitted for free. Quite rightly those who enter the cathedral to pray or to join a service will not be charged. There are a handful of other cathedrals such as Canterbury and St Paul's who already charge an admission so Exeter is by no means the first.

Forgetting the fact that this is a religious building for a moment one would expect to pay for instance to enter a National Trust house or English Heritage property and if you are going to see a cathedral purely as a tourist attraction then forking out for a relatively modest fee doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I have to say it is a great many years, decades even, since I've been in this particular cathedral. It's tempting to get a senior railcard and spend the occasional day in Exeter; the alternative is to drive to the outskirts and use the 'park and ride' but I enjoy the train and, as I found out at Christmas, there is a morning through service from Gunnislake to Exeter. Food for thought.

Going back to cathedrals for a moment, by and large I much prefer much smaller and more intimate buildings such as village churches. So I was agreeably surprised to find just how much I really warmed to Truro Cathedral when I first visited it. Although interested in all aspects of the built environment I usually have a greater rapport with the much smaller buildings and structures.

Anchovies and climate change

This has been a good news story in relation to fishermen operating out of Brixham. Just lately they have been catching substantial quantities of anchovies, for which there is no quota limit. These fish are a long way north of their normal location: usually they are to be found around the Iberian Peninsula. I've noticed increasingly frequent reports of the ocean's more tropical inhabitants being spotted off our coast. Whereas to a certain extent the variability of our weather is masking our perception of climate change in the UK it is to nature and particularly the oceans that we need to look.

Just imagine for a moment if this year we replicated the weather of 2007 with regard to sunshine, cloudiness and rainfall but that the temperature was one degree centigrade warmer throughout. Our perception would be of two identical years, we would be oblivious of the rise in temperature. However in nature things are very different and I believe this movement northward of 'tropical' fish is very indicative of a change in climate.

In my previous post I had yet another go at Piers Corbyn who just happens to be a denier of man made climate change. I try not to be swayed by arguments that don't have much backup but here is the core of my belief: Planet Earth tries to get into some sort of equilibrium but all manner of things such as volcanoes and earthquakes are forever throwing a spanner in the works. The activities of man of course have huge potential to upset any balance. Unlike a certain candidate for the US presidency I don't believe this planet was created 6000 years ago, more like 4.6 billion years ago according to the scientists. Now for me 4.6 billion years is a time period that I can't imagine. However let's equate that vast period to a year on Earth. If one does the arithmetic it will be found that all the oil that has been burnt by mankind so far has occurred in the very final second before midnight on December 31st. I think that this fact combined with the simply enormous increase in human population over the same period is bound to have had some effect on the Earth and it is pure arrogance to assume otherwise. Here ends the first lesson.

Piers Corbyn is at it again

I had hoped that I could get through this month without referring to maverick weather forecaster Piers Corbyn. Fat chance! Having made some 'end of the World' type prophecies for December in the UK (which I'm glad to say didn't materialise) we now have a prediction for January: "The average temperature for January as a whole will be close to freezing: 0.8C (33.4F) at best."

First comment - what part of the UK are you referring to Piers? I can say with a fair degree of confidence that average temperature for the month in the Cairngorms will be lower than that in the Isles of Scilly. He is a little more specific about the lowest projected temperatures, talking about -17 degrees possible in the Midlands in a cold snap to come later this month. He will certainly need these sort of figures if his overall average is to be seen. At the moment things don't look good for him with another mild week in prospect. However a month is a very long time in terms of British weather and a short lived very cold snap is more than possible.

I don't unreservedly condemn the techniques used by Piers, although it would help if he was to explain them in some detail and encourage independent verification. For instance his saying that we weren't going to have a boiling hot summer in 2007 was fair comment; the fact that the jet stream was so far south last summer resulting in so much rain over England especially may well have something to do with solar activity. That doesn't sound unreasonable. But it's his predictions of apocalyptic storms that is getting to me. Piers makes predictions from a very long time ahead, something conventional meteorologists would never do. So why do I have so little faith in him? Here are my reasons in summary:

• So far as I know he hasn't presented his techniques to anyone for independent review. I know this is difficult because of his commercial interests.
• Although making predictions sometimes months in advance he will wait till a very few days before the significant weather event and make noticeable adjustments to his forecast e.g. he will revise the timing by several days or move the path of a storm to a different latitude. In other words he is turning a very long range forecast to a very short one. He can't have it both ways - he shouldn't be so specific in his time envelope or location if his forecasts have to be tinkered with in the way they have been to try and gain credence.
• When things go wrong he doesn't like to hold his hands up and admit a mistake.
• It may be that some of his predictions in broad brush terms have a semblance of truth in them but none of his many apocalyptic predictions have come to pass. But I suppose if he keeps trying it will happen eventually.
• His press releases from someone who is supposed to have a scientific background are some of the worst I've seen. I've noted comments that newspapers such as 'The Daily Express' have added their own measure of hype to his prognostications. However when you read on the internet some of Corbyn's output in his releases well he can put a tabloid to shame. His selection of words and use of varying font sizes and colours doesn't accord with my idea of a calm rational scientist, in fact his outpourings just shriek at you.

I think that Piers is in the last chance saloon if he wishes to gain any respect for his ideas. If we don't get a really cold spell later this month then any credibility he might have will disappear.

Blog entry 300 and all the best for 2008

This blog entry - number 300 believe it or not - should ideally have been written yesterday. Still not too late I trust to wish anyone passing by all the best for 2008. Should you have read my blog on 1st January 2007 you will have quickly realised that I for one have zero interest in any New Year celebrations. This village is particularly noisy when it comes to midnight on New Year's Eve with plenty of fireworks being set off for 15 or 20 minutes. The question for me was whether to stay up until the mayhem had gone or to try and get a couple of hours sleep before the banging of the fireworks. I chose the latter alternative even though it meant my sleep being disrupted by this pyrotechnic nonsense!

Enough of my complaining! At least on New Years Day we had a very enjoyable local walk close to the Tamar and were overjoyed to see a barn owl flying across a meadow to the nearby woods. Wow! That was a special moment. I really love these birds - friends in the Valley have a detached store close to their house with nesting barn owls and they can see the birds emerge in the evening when sat in their lounge. Now that's what I call civilised bird watching!

Although I had a very pleasant Christmas with family in harmonious surroundings I'm conscious of the fact that many many folk spent their time in caravans as a result of their homes drying out and being repaired after the floods last summer. It was good to see that the TV news people were highlighting their continued discomfort during this holiday season. It is all to easy to forget these people once the initial shock of the effects of the flooding has worn off. The good thing to mention though is that we haven't had any prolonged rainy spells since the flooding so that the situation hasn't been made any worse.

As I said at the start I am now up to 300 entries. Hopefully you will have read something to amuse or interest you in this blog.