Wednesday, 31 December 2008

Why Piers Corbyn gets so much space

When I started this blog I didn't have rigid ideas about all the subjects that I was likely to write about. I didn't doubt that the weather would feature now and again - like most folk in the UK for me it's an ever present talking point. In my case I have a particular liking for being in the fresh air, natural phenomena are always fascinating and I can't remember a time when I haven't been absorbed by an interest in our variable weather.

Somehow therefore I seem to have been destined to comment on the forecasts from Piers Corbyn of Piers is particularly famous (or infamous) for making weather projections up to a year ahead in time, something I don't think any other forecaster would try and do. What's more Piers was supposedly having marked success with his techniques. This whole business fascinated me and I decided to take note of how his prophecies were turning out in practice. My observations demonstrated to me that Piers was in actual fact making many awful blunders and that his forecasts weren't anything like as good as some would have you believe. I have finished up making a lot of entries showing just how wide of the mark he has been.

Lately some of Mr Corbyn's disciples have come to his defence in the comments on this blog and I have to say I welcome those attacking what I write - it makes for an invigorating read and acts as a check on any personal bias I have. However for those challenging me I need to clear up certain points. Firstly, because I criticise Piers on the outcome of his forecasts it does not mean I necessarily disagree with him on the subject of man made climate change. For the record I'm neither an adherent or denier so far as that is concerned, I just do not have sufficient in depth knowledge to come down on one side or the other. Let's be honest, 99.99% of the population just go with some sort of gut feeling on the subject. No it's not climate change but weather on which I cross swords with Piers. Secondly, it's been pointed out that Piers will normally attach a particular confidence level to his predictions (so many %) so he is saying in effect that none of these things may actually occur! Thirdly, I've been taken to task for not having a go at the Met Office and others who perhaps so far as longer term forecasts are concerned are no better than Piers. Regarding this last point it's the arrogance that Piers displays and reluctance to admit he can be wrong that really grates with me and perhaps this is why I seem to have him in my sights so often. I guess that I've written as much as anyone else in the Blogosphere about Piers!

I'm going to make a separate entry about the totally wrong forecast from Piers regarding the Christmas just past but am asking myself whether or not to spend time repeatedly blogging about him in future. By scrolling down through the subjects on the right hand side of this blog you can find the entries I've made with his name tag and I feel that I've well and truly made my point. If time were of no consequence I would love to buy all his monthly forecasts and then produce a totally separate blog shadowing what he says will happen. Unfortunately there are only 24 hours in one day! So it may be I'll give him a rest for now.

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