Monday, 25 February 2008

Piers Corbyn and weatheraction.com

I have blogged a number of times regarding maverick weather forecaster Piers Corbyn. It was always possible to go to his website 'weatheraction.com' and get some indication from his homepage as to what he considered we would get in the forthcoming month. By paying a subscription (I don't know how much) one could see a much more comprehensive forecast, anything up to a year ahead.

His domain name now appears to have been taken over by some concern in America. So either Piers has given up on his business or he is going to reinvent himself on another website. I and one or two other bloggers have been sharply critical of Piers; comparing his more recent prognostications that he has freely publicised with the reality of subsequent events has shown him to be spectacularly wrong. For instance having had a very bad time in January, even with a 'corrected' forecast half way through the month, he then produced a much less detailed summary for February. In it he talked about a "significant storm" mid month. I'll be generous and stretch mid month to include the whole of the second and third weeks. What happened? Most of the country was basking under the benign influence of an anticyclone!

Now remember that people were purchasing his forecasts. And remember too that Piers has been using his techniques for a number of years so one would assume that the quality of his forecasts would be getting ever better. If I had paid him good money I would be far from pleased at his really dreadful predictions of late. In fact you would literally have to believe in the precise opposite to be near the truth.

Significantly Piers would frequently castigate not only the Met Office but those who believe in man made climate change. I wouldn't say that sunspots and magnetic storms have no effect on our weather but as to being the sole drivers of it I can't believe that. Certainly the appalling results we have had from Piers is a vote of no confidence in his theories.

2 comments:

big said...

So tell us, how well have the IPCC CO2 driven computer model forecasts performed over say the last decade? For example, do any of them show the fall in average global temperatures recorded since 1998 - in which time a near-25% increase in the production and use of coal, oil and natural gases was recorded?

brian in the tamar valley said...

Thanks very much for your provocative comment! You aren't Mr Corbyn writing under another name are you?!

If the 'Weatheraction' forecasts produced by Piers were turning out to be substantially correct then his diatribe against manmade climate change would gain much more credence I feel. To me the whole matter of climate change is far more complex than most would admit and I don't think that any apparent peaking in temperatures a few years ago necessarily means that we are now on a downward slide. In other words there could be a trend upwards in the long term but with unexplained dips on the way!

I am trying to keep an open mind on the subject - not easy - but as stated previously I just wanted to make the point that the forecasts from Piers particularly over the past two months have been incredibly poor. Therefore his arguments about climate change become far less believable.

In fairness though that doesn't mean that those such as yourself are necessarily wrong. One thing I would suggest in passing is to think about 'global dimming' as to a reason why global temperatures aren't shooting up as expected by some. Plenty on the internet on that subject by the way!