Interesting initiative by First Great Western

For those such as myself who are aged over 55 railway company 'First Great Western' have come up with an interesting initiative. For a one off payment of just £25 they are offering the chance of making as many return ticket trips over their network as you wish between 1st February and 7th April. If you have a Senior Rail Card then an additional discount of £5 is available. The company are calling this scheme 'Club55'.

A great idea if for instance you were contemplating going to London town, taking in a West End show and staying a night or two. In my case I might be tempted to go to our capital but only for a day trip and this is where the snag lies. Understandably I suppose FGW are limiting the use of Club55 to off peak travel times. So I can forget London as one day there would be enough thanks! It was different when I had family to visit up there but that situation no longer applies.

The possibility of doing a number of shorter trips is worth considering, what I must do is examine the definition of 'off-peak' to see whether it's viable for me. Anyway here is the all important link to read all about it.

Another lookout for Coastwatch Institution

I have written before about the excellent voluntary work that is carried out by the National Coastwatch Institution (NCI). In effect they are taking over the role of the old manned coastguard lookouts and now they have just acquired the keys to the rebuilt lookout at St Agnes Head on the North Cornwall Coast. The old building was somewhat unsafe and so today's custodians of St Agnes Head, The National Trust, decided to rebuild it. Among the plus points are the fact that disabled access has been provided and that the NT have endeavoured to make the building carbon neutral in operation. So far as the latter is concerned they have used sheep's wool in the insulation and rainwater will be used to flush the toilets. Plans are afoot to install solar panels and a small wind turbine.

In previous posts I have been strongly critical, to put it mildly, about wind turbines, but in this location I have absolutely no problem with using one. It should be in scale with the landscape and, being right at the point of delivery in a breezy location, there won't be the power losses associated with cables carrying electricity over a long distance. It's a long time since I've visited the St Agnes area, I must try and do it this year.

It's worth remembering that the NCI started in Cornwall as a result of two fishermen losing their lives off the South Cornish Coast, a tragedy that might possibly have been averted if the nearby coastguard lookout had still been manned. Interestingly three of the charitable organisations that most resonate with me are the NCI, Shelterbox and the Cornwall Air Ambulance. Shelterbox of course started and still has its base in West Cornwall (Helston to be exact) and the Cornwall Air Ambulance was the first of its kind in Britain (and has always been funded by the public with no government money). This might be one of the poorer counties in Britain but we do have a great generosity of spirit.

I'm sure that I've supplied this link before but here it is again for the NCI if you want to read more about the organisation.

Napoli report to be published today

Just a brief comment for the moment. It was two years ago today that the MSC Napoli was beached just off Branscombe in East Devon so it is wholly appropriate that Professor Ian Mercer's report following on from the public enquiry he conducted will be published at lunchtime. I will be commenting on his findings in due course I hope.

Ken Clarke is high risk for Cameron

Labour today has unveiled its plan for an insurance scheme for the banks. Meanwhile David Cameron has been doing a front bench reshuffle of the shadow cabinet. This is not meant to be a primarily political blog although it may have seemed like it at times but the appointment of Kenneth Clarke to shadow Business Secretary Lord Mandelson is something I can't ignore.

Much is being made of Clarke's stance over the EU, something that's raised the hackles of some of the more right wing Tories and also some of that party's donors. Apparently Cameron and Clarke have agreed to disagree; rather like Basil Fawlty saying "don't mention the war" it seems now to be a case of "don't mention Europe"! When the General Election approaches the Tories will have to decide on whether to adhere to their previous commitment to include a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in their manifesto, something potentially worth a lot of votes. What the Irish decide to do will influence this no doubt but Cameron will worry about Clarke. Ken by instinct is the sort of person to shoot from the hip, to use straightforward quite robust language and this is to many voters an admirable trait. The downside for the Tories is the risk that he'll go off message.

In the more immediate future the thing that concerns me about Ken Clarke is the lapse of judgment he showed over the VAT rate reduction. At PMQs last week Cameron tried to goad Brown on the disastrous decision to reduce the VAT rate. Brown tried to turn the tables by quoting Clarke's support for the VAT change. That didn't matter with Clarke sat on the backbenches but will be next to impossible to repeat in future confrontations with the PM. On reflection maybe that's why Cameron was keen to make the point last Wednesday realising perhaps that would be his last opportunity.

Another point about rehabilitating Clarke could be that he is at least very identifiable by the population at large. It's often difficult in a shadow cabinet to become a household name, alright for the political anoraks but how many of Cameron's team and their positions are known to the public at large? Cameron, Osborne and now Clarke but how many others? Having said this and casting my mind back to 1997 just prior to Labour coming into power the same question could have been asked. Certainly Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Perhaps David Blunkett. Not many others I would have thought. Of course Cameron realises just how important communication is these days and if it were solely a contest between Brown and Cameron (using their communication skills) the latter would have a walkover.

Very interesting times to come, I'm sure about that.

Heathrow Third Runway

On the domestic front the decision last week to go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow was the really big story. Right at the outset I want to make clear my opposition to it. Now I've never had the misfortune to pass through Heathrow but when anyone talks about having to use our main airport it's pretty clear that they don't relish the thought of being there. Part of the problem is historical - what seemed like a decent enough idea straight after the second world war to use this ex military airfield is now, more than 60 years later, seen as a mistake. Bad enough with the colossal number of flights coming in and circling over the nation's capital but if Gordon Brown has his way that aspect will get much much worse.

One of the things that gets to me is the "promise" by the government that only planes passing certain environmental criteria will use 'Runway 3' and that the number of flights using it will be well below its theoretical capacity. This promise is absolutely WORTHLESS! Why? Governments have form on this: every promise previously made regarding the number of terminals to be built at Heathrow has been broken and every promise about the maximum number of flights at Heathrow has been broken (this has happened several times by the way). Bear in mind too that the most optimistic completion date is 2020 and it is unlikely to say the least that Messrs Brown and Hoon will be in government to answer for their decisions at that date.

Let's move on to the matter of jobs. This of course is why the unions are so enthusiastic about Runway 3. But what a pathetic smokescreen. The huge sum of money required for the development could be used instead for other much needed infrastructure; for example a series of lagoons in the Severn Estuary for power generation (reckoned to be cheaper and better than a barrage) and/or new high speed rail links. I think that these might generate some jobs don't you. As far as UK plc is concerned yes aviation has been a huge asset to the economy but that doesn't mean that there aren't other things that can play their part in maintaining our economic wellbeing.

An enlarged Heathrow is needed for business users is another cry. This doesn't really wash because many passengers using Heathrow are not business people. Much better surely to disperse these latter to the other airports around London and make better use of our rail system where practicable. And with the mind boggling changes that are occurring as part of the communications revolution will so much business travel really be needed even with the additional trade that we will do with the likes of China and India.

One of the outcomes of what happened last week is that we all now know where Sipson is. This is the community that will be obliterated by a third runway. Something like 700 homes will go, a school, church, the whole village. All for very dubious reasons.

Why has Brown made the decision on the runway right now? It would be of absolutely no surprise if it was for purely political motives like so much of what he blatantly does. Perhaps he wants to look decisive rather than dithering, perhaps he thinks it will make him look good both from the points of view of business leaders and of the unions. I'm pretty sure that he doesn't have any genuine interest in the environment. Perhaps he thinks it will make him look more pro-business than the Tories at a time when business needs support. He must know that there were going to be one or more judicial challenges, that short of getting an overall majority at the next general election the whole scheme will almost certainly get stopped in its tracks. But wasting money isn't something that keeps Gordon awake at night, it's political manoeuvring that drives him.

Before leaving this subject there is a very fundamental matter to be considered, one I have yet to mention. This country, no doubt in common with many others, has an absolute love affair with transport in its different forms. We just love to travel about. Part of this it has to be said is because families have got increasingly split up in the geographical sense. And it's not just that one's relatives have moved to other areas of this country, there are plenty of families split between different countries, continents even. (To be clear this is not a totally new phenomenon, plenty of Cornish miners moved abroad when their local mines closed leaving families back here, it's Whittle's invention of the jet engine leading to cheap air travel that has enabled relatives to meet up at a frequency not really possible before). Up until now our desires for ever increasing travel opportunities have been answered - need more motorways, we'll build them, cheap package holidays abroad, again no problem we'll build more airports or enlarge what we have got. The argument about the third runway might just prove to be a defining moment for us. This is a crowded country and the question needs to be asked: how much more large infrastructure do we want to absorb. My feeling is that we shouldn't be building more runways, end of story. Making better use of the existing runway capacity in the country as a whole is another matter.

We have already started to see some disincentives to use the car so much, an example being congestion charges whilst general road charging is also being examined. The senior citizens bus pass is also helping people look at an alternative to the car. But flights are (mostly) different. The reason is that for the majority of trips between different countries flying is the one practical means of travel. Inevitably there are grey areas, for instance if I wanted to get to Scotland in a hurry from here I might be tempted to fly but I would be using underemployed airports in this instance rather than bursting at the seams Heathrow. On the other hand London to Paris would be the Eurostar train rather than flying for me.

So far as flying is concerned the question that the country has to ask is have we got to a stage where we say "enough is enough" or do we reckon that there is nothing wrong in letting aviation expand without limit. It is a subject that should surely be discussed.

Snowdrops starting to appear

One of the real bonuses about living in the south west is the fact that we get something of a head start when it comes to the early spring flowers making their presence known. So it was a joy yesterday to see a clump of snowdrops out near Cotehele. Speaking of that venerable place I noted the other day that witch hazel was in flower in its grounds and it was nice to see another bush in evidence in a cottage garden as we walked into Metherell.

This ramble was part of a stroll organised by a local walking group who always organise a pub lunch as part of the proceedings. We therefore indulged ourselves at 'The Carpenters Arms' at Metherell where I chose Calamari (coated rings of squid), quite a favourite of mine. What was unusual, to me at any rate, was the fact that they were accompanied by a hot chilli sauce. All very enjoyable. Time was pressing after lunch as we needed to get back and as our companions were going to return to the cars by a slightly devious route we bid farewell to our friends and retraced our steps the way we came. It was on this return journey that we spotted the snowdrops, somehow they had been missed in the morning. I guess that this was due to the amount of conversation taking place! Yes it's nice to have a social walk occasionally but for someone such as myself who has a passion for all things natural free flowing talk can sort of get in the way at times.

I noticed the first snowdrop in my garden this morning, not fully out but the white being very much in evidence. One of my next door neighbours reported a similar state of affairs in their garden, however they also have crocuses which are also just starting to flower.

It's great to have the first stirrings of new life so soon after the shortest day. Inevitably there are times when I wouldn't mind 12 months of summer every year but on reflection it is nice to have seasonal weather because each part of the year has something to bring.

Storms and windfarms

Yesterday evening. A very wild and wet affair. Just the sort of weather when a large swathe of this country's population would be glad to be indoors, to crank up the heating, to watch Saturday evening TV and to be boiling those kettles for numerous cups of tea. Which all means a spike in demand for electricity. Just as well then that we have all these wind farms up and running to add to the supply. Except of course it wasn't like that! With gusts of wind over 100mph in NW Scotland and even down here in the more southern latitudes anything up to 70mph it is fairly obvious that the windmills would have been deactivated down the whole of the western side of the UK for the duration of the storm.

It's much much quieter here this morning on the weather front and no doubt the wind farms will be churning out some power today. What I am trying to point out is that unlike other forms of generation the wind farms have a constantly varying output and that this is totally unrelated to the needs of the moment. I know I bang on about wind generation and I'm not saying that maybe a small turbine could serve a single dwelling in some remote breezy moorland spot but I will continue to flag up this matter as it's so important.

The thing that we should be shown is how the total output of this country's wind farms varies over say a year and how that variation relates to overall demand for electricity. I've stated before on this blog that when new wind farms are proposed their instigators talk about the size of population that they would serve. These people never qualify such statements by adding words such as "in optimum conditions". The way the mainstream media allow this to go unchallenged makes me so very angry. Investigative journalists need to wake up.

A local example illustrating VAT nonsense

Reinforcing my strong criticism in previous posts of the temporary cut in VAT rate is an item I heard on BBC Radio Devon this morning. They were interviewing a lady who owns a boutique in Tavistock. She stated that all her stock is for sale at 50% off. No, correction, there are some items where the discount is even greater than this apparently. With reductions of this sort of magnitude the change in VAT is obviously just a pinprick.

I rest my case.

Excellent programme from Evan Davis

I don't know about you but I'm not too knowledgeable about the technical side of economics though I certainly feel that I ought to be. Like most it is inevitable that for me the micro economics of my own situation is going to be the greatest concern during the current downturn, to the extent that the big picture can pass one by. So thirsting for more information but in an easily digestible form I was glad that I watched the first of three programmes by Evan Davis on BBC2 last night under the title 'The City Uncovered'. Following an introduction about how banking evolved in the first place Evan went on to explain the mystique of securitisation, an idea that seemed to be the 'magic bullet' for banks when originally conceived only for the whole edifice to crumble as we now know to our cost. Like so many innovations the people involved could only see the benefits, commonsense went out the window and the downsides weren't examined. Add to the mix the greed of certain bankers and governments looking the other way when more and more high risk credit was being shelled out and I suppose it was inevitable it would all end in tears.

A couple of links here and here provide some more background to an excellent programme.

Dumbing down on chocolate

I have to admit to being a bit of an information junkie but I wouldn't want so much info that it would become a substitute for thinking things through and making my own judgements. There seems to be an ever increasing trend to go way over the top with information provision, in fact a tendency to dumb down all the time. Whilst half asleep this morning I was listening to the 'Today' programme and it must have come up one of the newspaper reviews - a story about an allergy warning on chocolate bars. These warnings probably started because some folk have the misfortune to have a very severe reaction to eating nuts, the problem being that there are a variety of foods around with minute amounts of nut in them even though you would never expect such food to include nuts in their ingredients. So a warning about nuts seems sensible and responsible to me.

What was different this morning was the press story about Cadbury's Milk Chocolate (my emphasis). There's a warning we were told on the packaging that the product contained milk! Milk chocolate containing milk!! Who would have believed that? Apart from some having an allergy to milk I think there are those who are allergic to chocolate so perhaps they should also add a message on the wrapping "This product contains chocolate"!

Pete Goss rounds Cape of Good Hope

Last October I wrote about the departure of Pete Goss and members of his family on Pete's latest sailing adventure. I won't go into the background again of why he decided to do this, better to just click back on to my piece here. Anyway 'Spirit of Mystery' has now rounded the Cape of Good Hope, a really significant moment in the voyage no doubt. If you wish to keep up to date with how the journey is going Pete has a blog you can access here.

Wind farms and end of cold snap

It very much looks as if this lengthy cold but dry snap is coming to an end. Well for the moment at least. For the next few days we should be back to Cornish normal with weather fronts coming in off the Atlantic. Although I have had to crank up the heating my terraced cottage being very small and with neighbours either side doesn't suffer the heat loss of some properties.

One feature of the anticyclone that has given us this settled weather is that the winds have been light or very light. Obviously domestic energy use has been particularly high over the past few weeks. Now interestingly an alternative energy engineer who I have met in the past is a huge fan of wind energy. I most certainly am not. He reckoned that as the wind blew stronger demand for energy increased so that there was a good correlation between wind speed and energy use. I agree with many things he says but this is quite definitely NOT one of them! The weather of the past three weeks is exactly the sort we can get in winter with the turbines being very ineffective.

We really need accurate figures of the actual output of our wind farms at different times of the year and for these figures to be compared with the optimum. Maybe the Freedom of Information Act could yield that information. One of the things that annoys is when someone says such and such a wind farm will provide for the needs of a population of so many. Because the wind farm output is so variable such statements have little value. The media should be nailing this sort of misinformation and not letting the wind farm supporters get away with it.

Don't fall for this scam

The internet is getting ever more sophisticated. The problem is that those bad people who are out to rob you via the internet are also getting more sophisticated.

A scam currently doing the rounds - I haven't seen it myself - is a fake email from HM Revenue and Customs. It purports to be offering you a tax rebate ... in exchange for your banking details. By all accounts it is very convincing. And who wouldn't jump at having some income tax back! Seems too good to be true? Well, it is too good to be true! As with your bank if this sort of information is needed they will write to you. So please don't get scammed.

Shopping and the internet

Yesterday I made a comment about 'Iceland' purchasing some of the former Woolworths premises. This led me on to remark about the changes to our High Streets occasioned by the rapid growth of out-of-town superstores.

This particular process has happened for a while now but there is another potentially dramatic change that could change the face of shopping for ever. We are partway through the Communications Revolution something as world changing as the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions of previous centuries. Because it is still happening it is perhaps not so easy to realise the quite incredible changes it's bringing about. We are already seeing a substantial increase in internet shopping; with young people today growing up with personal computers their use to shop on line will surely increase. Apparently shopping is one of our main leisure activities (not sure if I can understand why!) so does that mean that folk will still want to walk into a 'bricks and mortar' shop to really enjoy that retail experience? It's an interesting question I feel. Where the internet really scores is when a retailer is trying to sell a very niche product, one that commands few and irregular sales in a small town where he/she is forking out high sums of money in overheads. Advertising that same product on the internet to a worldwide audience and operating from a spare room at home could lead to much greater viability (think EBay sellers for instance) Is this the way we are heading? Will half of our High Street shops become surplus to requirements? Even things like booking a holiday can, I'm told, be done on the net.

Thinking back to the 1960s when my first job was in a very large office (a Local Authority) we would be paid monthly by cheque and during the last couple of days of each month cashiers from the bank would be in their room in the building to cash said cheques if that was what staff members wanted! Seems very archaic now and many people no longer routinely go to their bank apart from perhaps drawing cash from the ATM machine. I'm just mentioning this as an example of one area where modern systems have already radically affected our lifestyles.

To some of my generation the thought of carrying out life's transactions in a non face-to-face way might seem something to dread. But this is becoming the trend. For myself I am fascinated by the whole subject of communication - one of the excuses for writing this blog - but wouldn't wish to become such a techno freak that the computer became a total substitute for face-to-face conversations. I guess the secret is to use modern technology with discretion and to maintain some sort of balance. Having said all this some people I'm sure will say that I could do with talking rather less!

Iceland gets some Woolies

It has been announced that the frozen food retailer 'Iceland' has bought 51 of the recently closed Woolworths stores which should lead to the creation of 2,500 new jobs. Of particular interest in my two counties is the fact that we have been chosen to have two of these: Bodmin in Cornwall and Exmouth in Devon.

Apart from the obvious but rare good news on the employment front another big plus is the fact that these new stores will help to maintain the vibrancy of our town centres. I think most people would agree that the really massive change in retailing in the last twenty or more years has been the development of out-of-town superstores. Like them or loathe them they are a fact of life but inevitably there has been a knock on effect on the viability of High Street shops. As an aside I'll just mention that Tesco are moving forward on their plans to have a new store on the edge of Callington, a smallish town 5 miles to the west of here. What really gets me is the statement by Tesco that a new store would bring extra people into Callington. This is total codswallop! It won't work like that, people will drive to the new Tesco, make it their one-stop shop and drive home again. I'm not saying shoppers should or shouldn't do this, I'm just pointing out that 99% of them won't be enhancing the business of the shops in the heart of that town.

In the lovely country town of Tavistock, over the Devon border but only four miles away there was a small but well loved Woolies, now closed of course. Tavistock's population has expanded to I don't know what to be honest but it must be 10 to 12,000 people. In addition to a large number of independent shops the town centre is host to a small 'Boots' and small 'WH Smith'. On the food side there are somewhat cramped for space Somerfields and Co-op supermarkets whilst separate greengrocers and butchers still make a living. There is also an excellent pannier market open several days of the week. Go now to the outskirts of the town and there is a quite large Morrisons; reinforcing what I said about Tesco earlier it's as if the Morrisons and the town centre shops are in separate universes. One thing that has happened in recent times is that the wet fish sellers in the town have now given up and I know disgruntled individuals making the special trip to Morrisons not because they love the place but because they want to buy some decent fish.

When I go into Tavistock I have to say that I like to use the smaller shops and pannier market in addition to going to Morrisons. Time of day and whether I am using car or bus influence where I go to make my relatively small amount of purchases. I do like the smaller shops and passionately believe in keeping town centres alive and kicking. But there is no denying there are benefits in shopping in the larger superstores although the buildings themselves don't add any individuality to their surroundings.

One thing to finish on - the staff in the town centre stores and in Morrisons are top notch. I'm not a shopaholic, nothing like one but I think most people would agree that you get a good shopping experience in Tavistock!

VAT argument: Frank Field 1 Ken Clarke 0

At the back end of November when the reduction in the VAT rate was announced I was quite clear in my own mind that this particular policy wasn't going to do the job intended. There doesn't appear to be any evidence that it has motivated shoppers to go spending again, not that it would be easy to judge whether any extra activity would be down to the VAT cut or more likely the massive discounting taking place on the High Street. Interestingly Simon Wolfson of 'Next' and Sir Stuart Rose of 'Marks and Spencer' have poured cold water on the VAT plan this week.

This whole VAT thing came up for debate in the House of Commons last month and the government comfortably won the vote with a majority of 80. One Labour MP who voted with the Tories and LibDems was Frank Field. Now I am an admirer of Frank Field who is quite prepared to assert his independent view and go off message, we need more like him. It will be remembered that he led the rebels causing the government to cave him over the matter of the 10p tax rate. Incidentally what Gordon Brown did for purely political purposes, abolishing the 10p rate in his final budget, is something I believe should never be forgotten or forgiven.

It was former Tory Chancellor Ken Clarke who was one of the first cheerleaders for the VAT rate cut but I can't help thinking that perhaps he is feeling a bit silly now. Clarke is generally credited with doing a good job looking after the Nation's finances in the dying years of the Major administration and has business experience as well. Therefore I was surprised at him taking the stance he did on the VAT.

There are of course instances where the consumer will clearly benefit from the VAT rate change, particularly on the service side as opposed to retail. An example - a car needs £300 of work done on it to pass the MOT test. This is essential expenditure not discretionary purchasing. As such the saving on VAT would prove to be very acceptable! In the HoC debate Stephen Timms for the government reckoned that the average household spent £900 a month on VAT rated goods and services which would mean a saving of £20 per month following the VAT change. Put like that it sounds good but (a) I'm dubious about the figures and (b) I don't think that is enough money to make the family go out and spend the saving. It might go toward paying off a credit card bill (no bad thing) but stimulate them to spend more in the shops? I don't think so.

Bearing in mind that the VAT rate change was the flagship policy in last year's pre-budget report it looks as if the government aren't very keen to shout about its supposed benefits at the moment. My gut feeling is that it's there because of the insistence of the old chancellor (Brown) rather than the present incumbent (Darling).

Another rant on HIPS

House purchase is becoming a real rarity in my area now. Sure one or two transactions are still taking place - one such was a recent sale of a semi-detached cottage up the road from here, it was an 'executor sale'. When mortgages were plentiful and prices forever going up then there would have been houses going on to the market where there wasn't a life or death necessity to move. In the present economic climate one imagines that people would move because of a genuine need rather than on a whim.

This brings me to 'Home Information Packs' or HIPS. I had a right old go about them when I wrote a piece on 9 July under the heading "More thoughts on housing situation". I made the point that it was a big disincentive to put a house on the market when you had to shell out several hundred pounds right at the start. I also pointed out that with the downturn some Estate Agents just wouldn't go on paying for a HIP and wait to goodness knows when for the house to be sold and then deduct the HIP cost from their commission. In other words the vendor would now have to pay out a fair sum (up front) even if the property never sold.

The underlying point here is that in the present climate having to produce a HIP is a massive downside to the idea of putting your home on the market. It is all so typical of politicians, they come up with a hare-brained idea, imagine all sorts of upsides, don't forensically look at the possible downsides, enact legislation and then the whole thing falls apart. Assuming that the solicitor or licensed conveyancer is on the ball the main delay is likely to be securing funds. I really don't believe a HIP helps the process in any meaningful way. Rant over for the moment.

No snow here yet

Well it might have snowed a bit over other parts of Britain today but as to the Tamar Valley not a flake in sight. In fact I spent a useful half an hour after lunch pulling up some of the brambles that are in residence at the bottom of the garden. In the southwest we seem to have had the least cold temperatures of late with occasional glimpses of sunlight. I have to say that I would enjoy seeing snow for a day (now I don't have to commute), there's something compelling about the eerie silence that goes with snowfall. We are in a deep, narrow valley here and on those very rare occasions when it does snow the appearance of the hillsides is quite stunning particularly when sunshine follows the snow.

Notwithstanding this cold snap the Met Office in Exeter are predicting a warm year ahead. This is being put down to the phenomenon known as 'La Nina' being less strong than in the last few years. I have to say at this juncture that my faith in the Met Office looking at a 12 month time span really isn't any greater than my belief in the forecasts coming from maverick Piers Corbyn who I have had reason to criticise in the past. As someone who enjoys a degree of warmth I hope that the Met Office have got it right.

We are told that it is likely to be the coldest night so far tonight. But with dry air here at least and little wind to add to the chill I'm finding the weather quite acceptable in this neck of the woods.

The horror of Gaza

The media are giving very extensive coverage to current events in Gaza and the still photographs and film footage underline the real horrors the inhabitants are having to endure in a way that this blog written so many miles away from the maelstrom could never do. I'm sure that most Palestinians and Jews would just like to get on with their lives in a peaceful manner and that it's those such as Hamas and the Israeli government who have blood on their hands.

What surprises me is that there are so many people in the UK who have heavily entrenched views, some blaming Hamas 100% others saying it's all the fault of the Israelis. I certainly don't have enough information to play the blame game but there seems to be no doubt that Hamas have been launching rockets into Israel for a very long time. This is not to condone Israel's actions but it is something that yesterday's peace protesters ought to bear in mind.

I think that the UK is fairly impotent to do much; whether the US will be able to exert any influence is not at all clear. Certainly the Arab / Israeli question is yet one more item in Obama's Inbox from hell.

A clever scheme from 'Flybe'

'Flybe', the well respected regional airline based at Exeter, have just announced what I think is a very clever idea. They are offering free insurance to their customers, allowing them to claim a full refund on their travel costs should they lose their jobs. There are conditions of course: anyone claiming will have to submit their redundancy notice as evidence and they must have been in continuous work with the same employer for a minimum of two years. And to be eligible they must make their booking during this month of January.

I've never had dealings with 'Flybe' but they always strike me as one of the better run airlines and I might be tempted to use them if I was going to one of their 150 plus destinations. My feeling is that this new announcement is a shrewd move. For a start in this very competitive market they have stolen a march on the other airlines. They are also energising their customers to commit themselves early. With so much uncertainty in the business world potential holidaymakers may not be in too much of a rush to buy their tickets but by confining the offer to this month only Flybe are helping to concentrate minds.

We are told that travellers aren't having to fund this insurance, apparently Flybe's own insurance will take the hit. One other very important thing and I might have misheard this earlier today - I believe that the cancellation of holiday costs applies to the whole family flying not just the person who has been made redundant.

Well done Flybe for being so innovative!

Daffodils out at Cotehele

Although I ignore the festivities of New Year's Eve it is a bit special somehow to go for a walk on New Year's Day. A quick note here about fireworks: there seemed to have been fewer let off in the village this year and by a quarter past midnight silence again reigned supreme, or at least I didn't hear any further unrequested noise! As usual on the TV news they showed the huge displays in Sydney, London and Edinburgh. Regarding the last mentioned venue I have a feeling the show had to be cancelled there last time because of potential high winds, no problem this year with the anticyclonic weather that's persisting although I imagine it was quite cold.

So to New Year's Day. Equipped with flask and picnics we set out on an easy much loved walk to Cotehele. One of the great plus points about the Tamar Valley is that one can arrange routes away from the hurly-burly of heavy traffic. In fact for us traffic is a massive quality of life issue. This particular walk through quiet lanes and on country paths feels like a throwback to an earlier less hurried time and is always a pleasure. Arriving at Cotehele we had a quick look to see if any snowdrops were in flower. Not yet. However we were more than compensated by the sight of a forsythia fully out (!) and what my more knowledgeable friend told me was a witch hazel tree. However the real icing on the cake was seeing a clump of daffodils in flower! All very good to see.

The Tamar Valley is extremely variable in climate and where we live is in a frost hollow. We normally expect the gardens at Cotehele to be ahead of us but even so the daffodils came as something of a pleasant shock.

As to be expected we came across quite a lot of winter heliotrope during the course of our ramble. I've seen it out for some time actually - I'm pretty sure that it is an introduced species, it is quite vigorous and where it gets a hold seems to swamp everything else. In all honesty I never think of it as the most beautiful plant on the planet but welcome the sight of its flowers nevertheless as an indicator of the seasons moving along.

There had been several days here with really bright sun but New Years Day wasn't one of them. However the weather was quiet and dry so one shouldn't complain. A friend nearby told me this morning that it was cold on Dartmoor where she walked yesterday, I can very well believe that. Another big positive of our walk to Cotehele was the fact that my friend brought some of her homemade carrot cake. Yum yum! And we also met up with a couple we hardly knew who hospitably invited us into their home for a cup of tea!

A day of simple but rewarding pleasures.

My prediction for 2012 (not The Olympics)

The start of a new year and a time when journalists and bloggers like to make predictions about significant events in the next 12 months, although usually with the caveat that they could all be wrong! I'm not joining them in that particular game because I'm going to really stick my neck out and say what will happen in 2012! Well it's just one event I'll flag up and it's nothing to do with London hosting the Olympic Games in that year.

Let's step back in time to 1912 and, in particular 14th April. That was the fateful date on which the Titanic struck an iceberg on her maiden voyage and then in the early hours of the 15th she sank to the bottom with a huge loss of life. Now it so happens that the centenary of those two days fall on a Saturday and Sunday.

This is my confident prediction for 2012: at least one TV channel will have at the minimum a 'Titanic evening'. It could well be though a whole day, weekend or even more of Titanic 'stuff'. I guess we will have every film and documentary ever made about the ship and plenty of studio discussion as well. I can really understand the ongoing fascination with the Titanic, I get quite caught up with it myself.

So there you are then, my prediction for 2012. And don't forget - YOU READ IT HERE FIRST!