Piers Corbyn - November forecast review

At the end of October I had reviewed the weather forecast put out by Piers Corbyn for that particular month and found that it was one of his worst efforts with literally nothing right so zero out of ten I'm afraid. Now comes the judgement for November. Here was his forecast then (on his Weatheraction.com website) for the month just gone:

"November 2008. Dramatic changes. Cold wintry spells separated by heavy rain, floods and storms. Severe Weather Warning: Gale damage with North Sea storm surge risks (70% likely) and/or sleet and snow espec around 12 - 14 th & 25 - 28 Nov."

This is a little bit better Piers! He has brought out the sleet/snow angle OK and although we haven't seen any of the white stuff here during this present cold wintry spell I am prepared to accept that further east and north there could have been some. Regarding the reference to the 12 - 14 th the roughest weather was around the 10 th in fact but not really anything more than what you would expect in late autumn. North Sea storm surge? Didn't hear anything about that but in fairness that was only a 70% risk. Difficult to give a fair marking but as it's getting close to Christmas let's say 3 out of 10. Now what goodies will Piers bring for December? I hope he doesn't keep me in suspense!

Thoughts on the terror attack in Mumbai

It would be wrong for me to make no reference on this blog to the horrific events that have been taking place in Mumbai. Most importantly our sympathies should go out to the relatives of those killed and injured in the senseless slaughter. There are though one or two other points to make:

• As happened after 9/11 in New York and as happened after the more recent terrorist outrages in London it is vital to try and resume a degree of normality in Mumbai just as quickly as possible and there are signs that the people in India are doing just that.
• Fortunately one of the terrorists wasn't killed thus availing the authorities of the opportunity to question him and find out more about the motivation for and planning of the attack.
• There is finger pointing in the direction of Pakistan - of late there appears to have been an uneasy truce between that country and India over the issue of Kashmir. I can only hope that wise heads prevail and that there is no escalation in tension between these two neighbouring nuclear powers.

Council to bus air passengers

Following on from my previous post Cornwall County Council are rightly going to pay for the busing of passengers unable to use Newquay Airport over the next three weeks. In the case of those booked with Ryanair this could mean taking passengers to and from Bristol or Bournemouth because that company doesn't use Plymouth or Exeter airports. I recall that it wasn't so long ago that Ryanair were bitterly complaining about some airport taxes being applied at Newquay and, in their usual forthright fashion, they have spoken out about this fiasco, comparing Cornwall County Council to "the Keystone Cops".

Cornwall have said that there might be grounds for compensation to those affected by the Newquay Airport shutdown. I'm not quite sure how that can be assessed mind you but I fully approve of their organising buses or taxis to the other local airports. As it us i.e. the council tax payers who will ultimately be paying the extra costs of the next three weeks then the Council need to come clean and explain what has gone wrong. Obviously safety is paramount and if three weeks are now needed to get systems in place so be it. But somebody needs to do some explaining about why the transfer from the military to the new owner has got fouled up.

Embarrassment at Newquay Airport hitch

Next Monday is December the First, the day the RAF withdraw from RAF St Mawgan and Newquay Airport becomes a standalone entity. Well this was the script and, although the RAF are leaving, the other part of the plan has hit a snag. From December 1st to the 19th of the month all intended flights will be grounded. Why? New airport owners Cornwall County Council can't obtain the necessary Civil Aviation Authority licence because the new traffic control system just isn't ready. There was a hope that perhaps RAF personnel could stay for this interim period to keep the thing going but they have already been committed elsewhere.

This is all very embarrassing for the Council, it's not as if they haven't had plenty of time to make the necessary changes to the operation of the airport (I think that previously the military were responsible for all air traffic movements). Airlines using Newquay will have to bus their passengers to other airports from which they operate such as Plymouth and Exeter.

The unhappy start to the new chapter in the life of Newquay Airport reminds me of the chaos that occurred when Heathrow's Terminal Five opened. Terminal 5 doesn't seem to be in the news of late so presumably all is sweetness and light there. Did everyone get their luggage back in the end? Frustratingly we don't seem to get long term media follow ups on these types of story. In fairness of course the subject might have been revisited but I've just not been around at the right moment.

I don't think the VAT cut will work

Roll Up! Roll Up! Starting Monday for the next 13 months a massive national sale! Great 2% saving on most of our lines! Now I don't have a heavy consuming lifestyle so perhaps I'm not a good person to make this judgement BUT I just cannot see a significant amount of extra spending by the Great British Public as a result of the VAT reduction. The 2.5% drop equates to approximately 2% of the total selling price and for the life of me I just can't see that igniting a spending spree, I really can't. Retailers might up their sales by really slashing prices even as Marks and Spencer did the other day for just one day but the VAT reduction is so minuscule in real terms that I don't believe it will materially affect buying decisions.

Businesses aren't too happy I understand with all the adjustments they are having to make to their computer systems etc to accommodate the VAT change, and knowing that they will have to repeat the exercise in 13 months time. For all their alleged support for small and medium sized enterprises (SME) it seems that the government just do not understand how things work at the sharp end. Quite a number of businesses are reluctant to lower their prices to reflect the change in VAT and I don't blame them.

The government's projections in last Monday's PBR are so optimistic that they don't seem real to me. It would be nice if the recession was short and shallow but I just don't see it happening that way. Labour figures for borrowing and later repaying our debts seem to be based on a best case scenario, if they have called it wrong then our problems will be much worse than we can imagine.

An enjoyable walk and MOT pass

I don't think anyone can say we don't get enough variety in our weather here in the UK. Today it's been thoroughly miserable here in the Tamar Valley, misty drizzle and feeling a bit raw whereas a friend having to go into Plymouth reported some nice sunshine there! However yesterday although cold was gloriously sunny over most of the region and this time we did have our fair share. For me yesterday's weather was particularly fortuitous as it was the day for the car's MOT test. It might seem a bit of an odd connection to make so let me explain. I always take the car to the same garage for the test and, as car drivers will know, the whole thing takes about an hour. What I like to do, weather permitting, is to use that time for a walk because just across the main road that passes the garage a track takes you deep down into the Tamar Valley and then gives a choice of return routes. Beautifully quiet it is rewarding walking and I was delighted to see quite a lot of valerian and some fuchsia still blooming in the little village I pass through. Wrapped up well against the cold and with sparkling visibility it was an absolute joy to be out in the fresh air.

Getting back to the garage I discovered that the car had almost passed its MOT - a very minor problem had showed up which I was able to resolve on the day and then submit the car for a partial retest. Hooray, it passed! The garage concerned is very organised in that it sends out an MOT reminder a month before the certificate expires; this is very handy because of course one can get a '13 month' MOT in effect by going a month early. If you really depend on the car being available 24/7 and 365 days a year it means that any necessary repairs can be carried out before the old MOT expires. OK you have to part with your (currently) £53.10 a little earlier but at least there isn't a last minute panic.

It's good to get the MOT sorted mainly because of the fact that you can't be quite sure what repairs might be necessary. Hopefully I can keep motoring in my 20+ year old car for some time to come!

VAT to be reduced or a huge bluff

The mainstream media (msm) are full of stories about an impending cut in the standard rate of VAT from 17.5% to 15%. This, we are told, is going to be one of the planks to be announced in the Pre Budget Report (PBR) tomorrow afternoon in the attempt to stimulate the economy. But is it all a huge bluff to wrong foot the opposition I ask myself. If we assume that there will be a VAT reduction then letting that information out early seems totally bizarre - it allows the opposition parties to examine the arithmetic and prepare a counter-attack.

If the 'leak' was deliberate then once again it shows the huge disdain of one group of people to the rest. The Chancellor is to make his statement to MPs in the House of Commons and it could not be more wrong for them to be getting information already in the public domain. I think I've blogged before (or at least I certainly meant to) about the way that the main thrust of someones speech is released to the media prior to the audience listening to the speech get to hear it. This is very discourteous and absolutely unacceptable in my book, yet it is taken as normal procedure these days. So far as the lowering of standards in public service is concerned this is a prime example. Of course the media are benefiting from this so don't expect any interjection from them about this practice.

For the sake of argument let us suppose that VAT will be reduced by 2.5%. Now imagine someone going into an electrical shop to buy some white goods costing, before VAT, £300. The VAT on this at 17.5% is £52.50, reduced to 15% it would be £45 giving a saving therefore of £7.50. Now would the prospect of paying £7.50 less on the item actually sway the purchasing decision. I would say probably not. However seeing a big notice saying £70 off (because the retailer needs the sale) might do the trick. Because of sluggish sales prices are likely to fall anyway without state intervention. In fairness I have to say that some businesses might gain to a degree with a VAT reduction e.g. a service industry where they have to invest in a stock of spare parts which may only trickle out as sales go fairly slowly.

Another aspect of VAT reduction is that it is mainly of benefit to the very well off who have a high consumption lifestyle. For those of us whose main outgoings are things such as food, rent, mortgage, council tax help with VAT is not very relevant. As I hinted at the beginning it may all be a con anyway and VAT rates won't be touched. In less than 24 hours we will all know.

Hatherleigh farm blog highly recommended

I've just been casting my eye over a blog that you can read if you click here. Written by Paula it gives a fascinating insight into the running of a small organic farm near Hatherleigh in West Devon. Well illustrated and highly readable Paula's love for farming, wildlife and the countryside shines through. Evidently she and her family sort of fell into farming, starting off with the purchase of a goat I believe! The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) helped set up the blog; they point out that the views expressed are those of Paula with which they may not necessarily agree. However they rightly state that "it is essential that people understand farming and farmers better" in relation to the organisation's desire that farming should thrive in England. I couldn't agree more with that!

Some quick retail therapy

Retail therapy? Well necessary shopping so far as I am concerned. I may or may not have mentioned on this blog but I'm not heavily into shopping - it's not a hobby of mine and quite definitely not an addiction. Partly this could be down to my gender but whatever I couldn't put off any longer getting a couple of new pullovers. When I heard that Debenhams had started a three day sale with 25% off across the board and that M & S were having a one day sale I thought I had better nip into Plymouth sharpish and take advantage of the opportunity. I could have driven in and used the ever useful 'Park and Ride' facility but instead opted to use my bus pass.

Now I'm no longer faced with a daily commute travelling by public transport has become a more attractive proposition. My own observations in the Tamar Valley is that the bus and train companies are getting their act together: through most of the day we have an hourly bus service between Gunnislake and Tavistock whilst the onward section to Plymouth sees buses running every 15 minutes or so. So far as the trains are concerned a new timetable is coming out next month and I'm led to believe that there will be at least one extra train on the 'Tamar Valley Line'. Again, based on what I see, Gunnislake Station looks to be increasing in passenger use.

Back to last Thursday and I took the 9.48 bus from our village into Tavistock, changed buses there and was walking down through Plymouth's shopping centre by 11 o'clock. By 11.30 I had been in and out of Debenhams and was boarding the bus to go home - I don't hang about on this shopping lark! On the last leg back to my village from Tavistock I met an elderly friend from the village so a chance to have a bit of a natter. All in all I had been away from home for just under four hours with zero travelling cost or stress; my two lambswool jumpers were actually for sale at half price, so total cost to me of £25 - I was well pleased with that result!

A few observations: travelling off peak on public transport (in this area at least) never seems to be too busy; although I enjoy driving I don't have any hangups in letting the bus or train take the strain occasionally. Plymouth has excellent park-and-ride facilities and dedicated bus lanes in places, all to the good in my book. Another point worth a mention is just how space efficient buses are compared with cars - our small local buses carrying 30 odd passengers can't be more than two average cars in length if that, although obviously wider of course. Assuming the buses need the same amount of empty space fore and aft as a car when driving along then it can be seen just how much better at optimizing road space a bus can be.

One final comment, when Gordon Brown supplies something for free it's a shame not to take advantage. Mind you purists may frown about using the word "free" in relation to bus passes, it all has to be paid for somewhere - mainly out of general taxation and with shortfalls coming out of "our" council tax. But it's certainly nice to receive a ticket that says £0.00, that's for sure!

Forty five years since President Kennedy shot

Where were you 45 years ago today? Or, putting it another way, where were you when you heard about the assassination of President John F Kennedy? It seems to be the accepted wisdom that all of us old enough to remember can recollect where we were when that shattering piece of news became apparent.

In my case I was in a pub in Heavitree, Exeter either playing skittles or, more likely, in support of my colleagues team from my then workplace. The landlord came into the skittle alley to say that Kennedy had been shot, before we had finished he came back to say Kennedy was dead. So yes even after 45 years it is still in the old memory banks.

So much has been written since about this momentous event but we still can't be sure if Lee Harvey Oswald was the lone gunman. I still lean toward a conspiracy theory but will we ever really know after all this time.

My worry now is about whether one or more Americans want to see Obama dead. I just hope that the intelligence and security services over there are up to the job.

John Sergeant quits 'Strictly Come Dancing'

I have a confession to make ... I'm not sure how to say this ... well, here goes ... I've never watched 'Strictly Come Dancing'! Gosh I feel better with getting that off my chest. Why I'm devoting a post to this subject of course is because of the withdrawal of John Sergeant from the competition. I've just done a Google Blog Search on "John Sergeant" and see that there have been nearly 6,000 blog entries in the past week including those words. Of course there might be another John Sergeant but I bet most of those entries refer to our man.

Although I'm watching this saga unfold with wry amusement it's our love affair with audience participation TV that is really intriguing me and is the reason for this post. 'Strictly', which seems to be the accepted abbreviation for the show, is just one of many current and recent TV programmes which invite the armchair audience to vote on the proceedings. From the producer's perspective it is a wonderful formula - come up with something that's cheap, popular and a source of income from a share of the cost of the phone calls, it has to be a winner. Actually I'm not sure about the "cheap" aspect on reflection, I don't know how much it costs to have Bruce Forsyth in as compere or the judges for that matter. The motivation for people to spend money on phone calls could be a combination of factors. Two of these might be, firstly, a desire to be able to influence an outcome in as much as we might feel that most of what happens in our country today is out of our hands particularly in the political arena. The second point I thought of is do we need periodically to be part of some collective action, something we feel we want to share with millions of other people across the country, rather like those big sporting occasions in which Britain might just have a chance to win. H'm, can't make up my mind on that one.

Come this weekend it will be decision time for me: do I watch 'Strictly' to see what all the fuss is about or do I go with my normal instinct and not waste time on it. I won't commit myself at the moment. One other thing to mention is the clip of JS and his partner on the news since the furore broke of John seemingly walking across the stage to the right with his partner in tow behind him. I feel that I'm nowhere near up to date regarding today's fashions in dancing!

Police response way over the top

I don't know what it is about those we can loosely describe as "being in authority" but it seems that they are forever making poor judgements. This has just showed up in the way the police dealt with an alleged crime committed by a Plymouth man. The story goes as follows: Mark Frearson took leave from work so that he could spend time with his seven year old son Harry who it seems would normally be living at the home of Mr Frearson's wife, the couple being separated. One evening Mark and his son go shopping, Mark tells Harry not to wander off when they get to the till but the seven year old does just that. After some minutes of frantic searching father finds son and gives him a smack on the bottom (or the back of the leg depending on what report you read or hear). No suggestion that Mr Frearson is ranting and raving or causing any other form of distress. A witness sees the smack and reports matter to the police. A few hours later police arrive in force at Mr Frearson's house - presumably the witness had noted Mr Frearson's car registration number before he drove off from the shops. When I say they "arrived in force" we are talking about no less than four police and a child protection officer! Harry is made to strip so they can see if there was any evidence of injuries, Mr Frearson stated that they found none. Harry is taken away to spend the night at his mother's home. On the evidence of this one witness Mr Frearson was arrested and taken to the police station. After a while the police said they couldn't carry out an interview because the witness "was not in a condition to give a statement". Mr Frearson was kept in a police cell overnight and well into the following morning at which time the witness decided to withdraw the allegation. Mr Frearson alleges that there was no apology from the police when he was released and is, understandably, not happy with the situation. He has made a formal complaint about the matter.

Now I'm not going to delve into the rights and wrongs of smacking in this post, suffice to say that there seems to have been only the single smack and having heard Mr Frearson on the radio he does come over as a genuine concerned parent. What I want to know though is who was the imbecile in the police force who decided on this totally over the top way of dealing with what appears to be a very minor misdemeanour. There was a time when you would trust them to be proportionate in how they responded to possible crimes. Not in this instance though, did it really need four of them plus a child support officer to respond to the allegation. Having removed Harry from Mr Frearson's house did they need to criminalise the father by keeping him in a cell overnight. Of course they didn't. What on earth is the matter with those making such ludicrous decisions? We are paying them good money for doing it right but they get it wrong too often.

As I said earlier Mr Frearson has made a complaint to the Devon and Cornwall Police Authority, very justifiably based on the known facts. A full and unreserved apology is the very least that the police should now give as a result of their crass behaviour. One final thought - policing is a two way thing, alienate a member of the public for no good reason and it wouldn't be surprising if that person decided not to help the police when assistance was needed.

Politicians and Historians

In the past I have had a go at politicians who have had little regard or knowledge of history with the implication that if they were better versed in the subject their decision making would be improved. I need to row back a little on this having listened to a programme on Radio 4 the other morning. As an aside I would mention that if only we had days 30 hours long I would listen a lot more to that particular channel - there is plenty of thought provoking talk on it.

Back to this particular programme, only on for a quarter of an hour, well it was all about the relationship between politicians and historians in this country! I think they described Tony Blair as "tone deaf" when it came to history, something I can well believe but the programme did remark favourably on Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown. In the Thatcher case she called in all the best historians for a meeting at the time when the reunification of Germany was taking place - she was concerned about whether the larger Germany would be some sort of threat. It seems that they were able to calm any fears that she had. Much more recently Gordon Brown assembled a number of historians over the question of 'Britishness', one of his big things at the time but I doubt that is at the front of his mind just now. One other point I"ll mention is the valid comment by Roy Hattersley that one has to be very careful about applying the lessons of history to present day events because the surrounding circumstances can be very different.

It proved to be an interesting 15 minutes of radio encouraging me to reappraise my viewpoint.

Reprieve for bendy cucumbers

Just in case you missed it last week the EU will be removing or toning down many of its regulations regarding the size and shape of the fruit and vegetables we purchase. This, it should be noted, doesn't apply to all our greengrocery (such as apples for instance) and will not come into effect until next summer. Better late than never I suppose.

I was reminded that I wanted to write this piece in the blog when I read the 'Western Morning News' this morning. A regular Monday columnist is Kate Ironside, someone who is unashamedly pro EU, but to her credit is prepared to flag up its more barmy decisions. Like me she is pleased enough about the scheme to restore some commonsense into the world of buying fruit and veg. However she states that the regulations only came into being because the different countries had their own rules and with a uniform standard UK cucumbers could be sold in France, or vice-versa "without fear of falling foul of different national standards". H'm, if you say so Kate.

One of my biggest hobby-horses is the question of food waste and I feel it borders on the immoral if fruit or vegetables aren't available to buy for purely cosmetic reasons. Surely the shopper can decide for his or herself whether they are happy or not to purchase a slightly bent cucumber without having to be told whether the curvature merits it being Class 1, Class 2 or even beyond the pale! Someone in Brussels had to frame the regulations, others in this country (trading standards presumably) would then be responsible for making sure standards were being adhered to. All this using our money of course! Absolute madness.

At least the EU have started to own up to the stupidity of it all.

Osborne upsets Gordon Brown show

One of those things that irks me is the way that much of the media in this country will get bound up in just a few of the aspects of a multi faceted problem and almost ignore some other very valid points. This has happened with the really massive depreciation of the pound sterling, not only against the dollar but against a basket of other currencies including the Euro. Now our Prime Minister has been saying that we are better prepared to deal with the downturn than other developed countries. So how come the pound is slipping so fast; in America one of their largest firms and a real icon to their people 'General Motors' is perilously close to bankruptcy yet the dollar is doing well against sterling.

Gordon Brown has been at the G20 meeting on the other side of the pond doing his international statesman thing. When over there he gave his reaction to the comments made by Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to 'The Times': he attacked Osborne over his "partisan talk" in criticising the government over its policies whereby he (Osborne) stated that there could be a collapse of sterling if the government kept trying to borrow its way out of trouble. The Labour reaction is all about politics - no doubt the Tories would behave in a similar way if there was a role reversal - but Brown is 100% wrong in thinking that the opposition should meekly say nothing. The sterling situation is a very serious matter surely but you can be certain that Labour will be hounding Osborne if the pound goes downhill tomorrow when the markets reopen.

I'm not an economist but I do appreciate that there are winners and losers when the comparative value of your currency changes. It's the same argument of course when interest rates alter. Bearing in mind that oil is paid for in dollars and that our contribution to the EU is paid in Euros then it is quite evident that these two items are costing us far more as a result of the pound's weakness. The Opposition have a great opportunity to really get at the occupant of No 10 on this issue and I don't see how Brown can pin the problems with the pound on some other third party.

Although it might seem that I'm a supporter of the Tories that's not necessarily the case. They have been strangely mute in the last few weeks and it's quite possible that they would have 'messed up' if they had been in power for the past 11 years. But they do have a duty to speak up when dire events are happening around us and I'm pleased that George Osborne has now found his voice.

Local girls walk for 'Children in Need'

The BBC had their annual 'Children in Need' bash last Friday and they believe they might well eclipse last year's record breaking total once all the money is in. I have to say that I seldom watch the show these days (I'm not a paid up member of the Terry Wogan appreciation society), it's not really my cup of tea. On the evening before two local girls rang my doorbell - "Would you sponsor us to walk to school tomorrow in aid of 'Children in Need'" they enquired. It turned out that they intended to walk the 5 miles to Callington College and I was more than pleased to make a contribution to the cause. More than the actual walk itself it was the fact that they were prepared to do something for no personal gain and moreover spend considerable time trekking around our large village to ask for sponsorship that impressed me.

Until recently walking along the busy A390 to Callington would have seemed a foolhardy adventure but now with a separate footpath/cycle path such a traipse is a practical proposition. I think they said that they would start their walk at 7.30.

The 'Children in Need' extravaganza of course benefits from its own momentum and high exposure. Even so it is amazing how much money continues to flow in. What I do fear though, as the recession starts to bite, is that small low profile charities in particular will feel the pinch.

More to come on my thoughts regarding the dire economic situation we are in.

Volunteers needed for Festival Committee

On Wednesday evening we had our AGM for the Gunnislake Festival. I've been Secretary for this annual event for the last year or three and have decided that it is time to step down from this post. Similarly Bob and Nora, respectively Chairman and Treasurer, have retired from their positions. In Gill we now have a new Chairman for the Committee but no volunteers were forthcoming for either Secretary or Treasurer. So if you know of anyone who would be interested in taking these jobs on please get in touch..

There will be an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on Wednesday 7th January when it is hoped that some folk will be prepared to come forward to keep this popular local Festival going.

Now Charles can get his bus pass

Here we are then November 14th and the heir to the Throne is 60 today. Congratulations to Prince Charles. It was good I thought that the Queen publicly praised Charles a day or two ago regarding his good works, praise that I thought was well merited.

No doubt now that Charles has reached this particular milestone there will be renewed speculation about whether the Queen should abdicate in favour of her son. But why should she? She is well respected around the World, she appears to be as physically fit and mentally alert as ever and in a world of constant change it is great to have a sense of continuity somewhere along the line. Apart from this she demonstrates very clearly how much of a contribution a seriously older person can make in society.

With the speed of change that is happening around us it is good to have an intelligent voice that is in a position to be listened to, someone who is prepared to think out of the box, someone who will say "Whoa, hang on a moment, you might be going down a route you will ultimately regret". The political system is such that government decisions are geared to short terminism whereas a person like Charles will have a much longer perspective. Apart from the fact that Charles has a good insight into the history of both this country and others (politicians are notoriously bad at learning from history it seems) another point in his favour is that he has a good grasp of inter- relationships in the natural world. Again this is an area in which our politicians are often found wanting. In our helter-skelter world where damaging actions can happen, in geological timescales, in the blink of an eye, hacking down rain forests being a classic example, then we need wise minds to understand the problems to come. Charles gives some evidence that he does understand these things.

From what I've written it might be thought that I think Charles has no faults. Not at all. He has certainly inherited the short fuse of his grandfather, George VI. As to his much discussed first marriage he found himself in the impossible position of not being able to wed his true love until much more recently. The body language between himself and Camilla speaks volumes for their relationship. I have the feeling that they are particularly comfortable when they visit either of my two counties. And so they should be of course!

Getting back to blogging

This blog has been very neglected of late and I don't have any good excuses like being laid low by the flu for instance! The weather here is now typically Cornish late autumn - mild, cloudy and with always a hint of dampness in the air. We did at least have a pleasantly sunny day on Wednesday and, although sunshine is in short supply at the moment, when we do get a rare bright day the sun is appreciated all the more. What used to be so frustrating was being stuck in an office when the weather was glorious outside and then be rained on at the weekend! I had previously written about seeing a violet in bloom in a patch of these flowers close to the river, on checking today I didn't see that same flower but did see another one out.

The cold northerly blast in the last week of October didn't last long. I expect at least one such period of weather in the late autumn but it normally occurs in November or December. I shall be interested to see if there is a repeat performance between now and Christmas.

Obama wins, dignified concession from McCain

As expected then the new President-Elect in the USA is Barack Obama. I watched the start of the results coming in on my computer but no way was I going to stay up all night! On a previous post I had put forward my main reasons for rooting for Obama: my worry with John McCain was that his health problems might prove terminal whilst in office which would then enable the so so scary Sarah Palin to become President plus the fact that McCain is known to have a very violent temper, an aspect of character not too desirable for the leader of the free world. Having said that he made a very fair and decent concession speech and I certainly warm to him far more than those extreme right wing elements in his party.

It was interesting that the folks in America seemed to be prepared to queue for however long it took to exercise their democratic rights, personally I can't stand queuing and am lucky enough to be able to live a life where that chore is nearly non-existent! When I cast my vote here in the village I reckon I'm in and out of the polling station in 60 seconds!

I don't think it would be right to expect rapid changes after Obama is sworn in in January - I've seen it written that he will have the "inbox from hell", a fine expression. What seems to be particularly good is that we should see America reconnect with the rest of the world but don't expect Obama to be a soft touch. That wiry frame conceals a very strong personality methinks.

The BBC gets it right with these programmes

The BBC, quite rightly in my opinion, has been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism as a result of the stupid prank on the Russell Brand show. I was one of those very concerned about the event, the fact that the BBC employed these idiots, payed them ridiculous amounts of money, and that they had dropped their standards to a new low. Without wanting to sound elitist I have to say that there are certain standards of respect and decency that a public service provider should not fall below. Period.

It is pleasing though to flag up two current series on BBC television that are, in their separate ways, absolutely superb and show just how good the corporation can be. The first one I would mention is running on Sunday evenings and it is following Stephen Fry on a trip around the USA. I guess that it is no coincidence that this is being shown around the period of the election over there! Certainly Mr Fry is doing a great job in showing the incredible diversity of people, culture and scenery in that amazing country. As I would expect the series is showing just how open Americans are as a people, and their personalities gel well with Stephen's laid back style. It was good to be reminded about just how empty much of this huge country is once you are away from the cities on the coastal plains and around the Great Lakes. As we are an island nation here in Britain I had never much thought about borders so it was a bit of a shock to see the fencing erected to inhibit incursions from Mexicans on the southern border. Stephen has been an excellent guide and I'm looking forward to the next episode when I think he gets towards the Pacific having started his journey on the Atlantic shoreline.

The other programme that deserves a bouquet is one on BBC2: this a follow up to the popular Dragons' Den programme. Dragons' Den of course is the show in which would be entrepreneurs make a pitch for cash and expertise to a panel of five very successful millionaires who have built their empires from scratch. Of course many folk go away empty handed but the great thing is that others do get a leg up with their businesses. Now I am a great admirer of all those people in this country who have great ideas and then want to put them into practice. We have had and still have incredible talent in this country to invent and make great products and come up with great ideas; of course the intention of the programme makers is to provide good entertainment for the viewers but to me it is really important to demonstrate our entrepreneurial instincts as a nation. As I said at the top of this paragraph this is a follow up to DD - there are five 1 hour programmes each looking at one of the Dragons, to look in on their family lives, how they run their businesses, what the other four dragons think of them (!) together with examples of the successes they have had in investing in the people who have nervously pitched before them. As usual Evan Davis keeps a welcome light touch on this background series, hardly intruding at all on the proceedings - other programme presenters please note! There are two down now and three to go, this series is very absorbing so well done to the BBC!

A quick aside: I have just had a quick peak at the BBC's Dragons' Den website (to make sure I spelt the presenter's name correctly!) and was surprised to see that the original Dragons' Den or its equivalent came from Japan. They say you learn something new every day!

November forecast now out from Piers

Following on from my last entry I see that Piers Corbyn has now posted up his forecast for November on his website here. Understandably his totally inaccurate prophecy for last month has disappeared; I imagine that this was very embarrassing to him. As usual his message is quite apocalyptic in tone but it's noticeable that he's resisted the temptation this time of having a news conference so that the likes of 'The Daily Express' can scream at us that the end is nigh. Of course Piers just may be right this time and I would be very happy to acknowledge such a feat on this blog should it happen. But I'm not going to hold my breath in anticipation.

New low point for Piers Corbyn

When I started this blog I quite expected the weather to feature in it now and again, even more so when a notable meteorological event happens in my two counties such as the freak hailstorm at Ottery St Mary. What I hadn't expected though were the frequent referrals I've made to forecasts produced by Piers Corbyn. I'm sorry to harp on about him but as I am someone fairly obsessed with our weather and which way our climate might change I have become very interested in what Piers has to say. A reminder that Mr Corbyn does not go along with the mainstream view on climate change, he is convinced that it is not man's activities driving our climate but that sunspots and magnetic storms on the sun, or the lack of them are the main factors pushing our climate one way or another. As I am someone who instinctively prefers not to follow the herd I am certainly interested in Corbyn's theories but it is difficult to find a convincing narrative from him on the subject. Now Piers reckons that he has the ability to produce an accurate forecast up to year in advance, some considerable claim don't you think. The trouble is his forecasts frequently don't stand up to scrutiny.

On the homepage of his website here he has a summary of the month's expected weather. As it is only for the upcoming month when it is posted there and it is his proud boast that he can forecast up to a year ahead then obviously a vague summary would be just a doddle. In case the October forecast has been taken down by the time you read this I'll just repeat what Piers reckoned October would be like so that it's possible to do a reality check. This is what he says (or said): "October 2008. Unusually Cold with sleet or snow at times on frequent Northerly winds. Often foggy. Milder later ... a major damaging storm." So had did October pan out over the country as a whole. "Unusually Cold" etc - most of the month was pleasantly mild. "Often foggy" - remarkably little fog, don't recall many airports fogbound for instance. "Milder later" - no it wasn't, as we are all aware the last five days or so has seen a blast of arctic air over the country with some snow showers. "... a major damaging storm" - I'm still waiting for this Piers (the hailstorm that had such an impact on Ottery St Mary was very small in area and was obviously not what Piers was talking about).

From the above it can be seen that Piers covering the relatively short period of one month was 100% wrong not just incorrect in some minor detail. This is not just a minor relapse in normally accurate forecasting, if you look at the labels to the right of this piece and scan down to his name you will see a number of references to him. I'm not saying that he's never got anything right but as can be seen from the comparison I've just made it might be a risky business sending him money for his detailed forecasts; all I can do is to say "take his forecasts with a generous pinch of salt".

Where now for Jonathan Ross

Things have certainly moved apace in the last day or two in the Russell Brand/Jonathan Ross prank phone call episode: Brand has resigned from the BBC as indeed has Radio2 controller Lesley Douglas. Ross is suspended from his BBC shows for 12 weeks without pay - a gross loss to him of about £1.5 million. It is evident that the BBC feel that they can draw a line under things, for the moment at least. Looking at the fallout so far we are told that Douglas was good at her job and was held in high esteem by Radio2's presenters. She may not be the person who agreed that particular edition of Brand's show could go on air but it was she who employed him and I can understand why she believed she should be the sacrificial lamb in this instance. Brand took the sensible decision to go anyway which obviated any need for the BBC to discipline him. But the corporation still have problems: they have to decide what action to take against whoever sanctioned this show with its obscene phone calls should hit the airwaves. Then what happens with Ross after he has served his ban? Maybe he will make the decision for them by leaving the BBC, that would be good riddance so far as I am concerned. If Ross stays I think he will have quite a job regaining acceptance from not only other employees of the BBC but the licence payer as well. Ofcom are now involved and if they decide to fine the BBC and Ross has resumed his alleged £6 million a year pay packet then one could expect a further outcry from the general public.

It's interesting to go back in time a little. I remember how in the 1950s the BBC was a highly revered institution, it was regarded rather like the doctor, the vicar and the bank manager. It was impartial, it was warm and safe. Of course commercial television had just started but this wasn't perceived as a big threat initially; I don't recall just when pirate radio had its heyday but eventually Radio1 took over from that. I do remember though the minor shock wave that arrived with 'That Was The Week That Was' fronted by David Frost in the early sixties. Suddenly satire had become mainstream. Things would never be quite the same again. As I see it I grew up in an age when rightly or wrongly standards were very clearly defined, it was all very sharp edges if you like whereas today what is or is not acceptable has become much more blurred. This is particularly the case with comedy. There has been much use in the past few days of phrases like "edgy comedy" and "pushing the boundaries" and some have used such expressions to excuse the antics of Brand and Ross. However let's be totally clear on this - what these two did was not funny in any way shape or form, it was totally unacceptable behaviour.

Although this incident was absolutely one not to be tolerated there were amazingly only two complaints prior to the 'Mail on Sunday' breaking the story. I don't know the present total of complainants but believe it is over 30,000, an extraordinary total for an incident which most would not have been aware of but for the press intervention. This reaction has shaken the BBC to the core. Here are my thoughts on just why so many folk have taken the BBC to task - I think we can assume that most of them are simply appalled at the behaviour of both Brand and Ross but because it has become such a huge story in the media and in the BBC's news programmes as well, with constant updates on numbers of complainants, then a lot of people are contacting the BBC whereas normally the story might have passed them by. In other words the whole thing has been feeding on itself. Now put into the mix that the injured party was Andrew Sachs, not just any old person but someone who, through his portrayal of Manuel in 'Fawlty Towers', has gained a lot of affection from the British public. The other thing of course is that we are aware that Ross gets a huge slice of money from the BBC (indirectly from us) and there is the perception that we shouldn't be paying a person £6 million per year for using the 'F' word down a mobile phone. This might sound a little simplistic but is basically where we are at.

The 12 week suspension for Jonathan Ross will at least give him time to come to terms with his absolute stupidity and allow him to reflect on whether he really should try to mend his career with the BBC.