Bookies should thank Piers Corbyn

If one goes to the homepage of weatheraction.com right now then you can see these words from Piers Corbyn "Storms and floods 12th & 13th December 'stunning success' for WeatherAction", followed by more words of self congratulation. Unfortunately for Piers the whole effect is ruined by the following near the top and in larger font: "Xmas Eve - Major storm; Xmas Day - Snow!" Ahem, "Major storm ... Snow" - I don't think so Piers!! And he had been forecasting another of his storms for the end of the month - it's not happening Piers!

We have been, and still are, under the influence of a large anticyclone, what meteorologists refer to as a 'blocking high'. Good name as it blocks areas of low pressure trying to come in off the Atlantic. What we have here is another example of Piers painting a totally wrong scenario, not just something slightly wrong in detail. And of course this anticyclone has been affecting the whole country i.e. I'm looking at the big picture not just Devon and Cornwall.

With Piers it's so difficult to deduce that his methods work when his forecasts do turn out to be accurate if other forecasts by him for nearby time periods are so terribly terribly wrong. Thinking about December for a moment there is a very good chance of getting a bad storm affecting a large part of the country at some stage and the one mid month Piers is taking credit for is one such. Now hold on a moment, didn't Piers flag up six possible storms for December? He is allowing himself a tolerance of + or - one day in the timing of the storm (fair enough in my opinion) so any one storm could occur on any one of three days. Multiplying 3 by 6 is 18 according to me and any one day out of 18 for a 31 day month aren't bad odds in my opinion! So here's the question about the forecast by Piers for the storm on 12th/13th: did his techniques work or did he just strike lucky?

Finally, why I decided to use the title "Bookies should thank Piers Corbyn" can be deduced from a link to the 'Daily Star' from the 'Latest News' page on the WeatherAction website. The media story quotes Piers saying the following: "Our advice to beat the credit crunch is to place a bet on a white Christmas because it's never looked more likely". The bookies had stood to lose a lot of money (not only because of Piers it has to be said) but are now smiling after a good Christmas for them.

Piers was full of himself getting some bad weather correctly forecast much earlier in the month. Will he now publicly apologise for his wrong advice to those who bet on a white Christmas?

Why Piers Corbyn gets so much space

When I started this blog I didn't have rigid ideas about all the subjects that I was likely to write about. I didn't doubt that the weather would feature now and again - like most folk in the UK for me it's an ever present talking point. In my case I have a particular liking for being in the fresh air, natural phenomena are always fascinating and I can't remember a time when I haven't been absorbed by an interest in our variable weather.

Somehow therefore I seem to have been destined to comment on the forecasts from Piers Corbyn of weatheraction.com. Piers is particularly famous (or infamous) for making weather projections up to a year ahead in time, something I don't think any other forecaster would try and do. What's more Piers was supposedly having marked success with his techniques. This whole business fascinated me and I decided to take note of how his prophecies were turning out in practice. My observations demonstrated to me that Piers was in actual fact making many awful blunders and that his forecasts weren't anything like as good as some would have you believe. I have finished up making a lot of entries showing just how wide of the mark he has been.

Lately some of Mr Corbyn's disciples have come to his defence in the comments on this blog and I have to say I welcome those attacking what I write - it makes for an invigorating read and acts as a check on any personal bias I have. However for those challenging me I need to clear up certain points. Firstly, because I criticise Piers on the outcome of his forecasts it does not mean I necessarily disagree with him on the subject of man made climate change. For the record I'm neither an adherent or denier so far as that is concerned, I just do not have sufficient in depth knowledge to come down on one side or the other. Let's be honest, 99.99% of the population just go with some sort of gut feeling on the subject. No it's not climate change but weather on which I cross swords with Piers. Secondly, it's been pointed out that Piers will normally attach a particular confidence level to his predictions (so many %) so he is saying in effect that none of these things may actually occur! Thirdly, I've been taken to task for not having a go at the Met Office and others who perhaps so far as longer term forecasts are concerned are no better than Piers. Regarding this last point it's the arrogance that Piers displays and reluctance to admit he can be wrong that really grates with me and perhaps this is why I seem to have him in my sights so often. I guess that I've written as much as anyone else in the Blogosphere about Piers!

I'm going to make a separate entry about the totally wrong forecast from Piers regarding the Christmas just past but am asking myself whether or not to spend time repeatedly blogging about him in future. By scrolling down through the subjects on the right hand side of this blog you can find the entries I've made with his name tag and I feel that I've well and truly made my point. If time were of no consequence I would love to buy all his monthly forecasts and then produce a totally separate blog shadowing what he says will happen. Unfortunately there are only 24 hours in one day! So it may be I'll give him a rest for now.

Very odd statement from Liverpool FC

Readers of this blog will know that I don't normally do sport or celebrities in my entries. So I wouldn't usually be concerned with the story about Liverpool captain and England footballer Steven Gerrard as something I would comment on. Gerrard has been charged with assault and affray following a disturbance at a Southport nightclub. What happens now will be down to the courts but it's not the alleged offence that I wish to write about.

Liverpool Football Club have issued a statement which includes the words "Steven has been an outstanding servant to Liverpool for the last 10 years and the club will give him all the support he needs at this time." What a very very odd thing to say ... "give him all the support he needs". He is charged with a serious offence and the club should surely take a non committal stance until the process of justice takes place. Innocent until proved guilty, yes. And maybe therefore no reason why he shouldn't train and play as normal until at least the court case comes up. But giving him all the support he needs seems to imply that he is a wronged individual or that he deserves to have the club find him a top barrister.

I have to wonder if a lesser player in the same predicament who had served this club for a similarly long time would have received the same backing.

Good rail journeys over Christmas

Well he we are in that strange no-mans-land between Christmas and New Years Day, a time in the UK at least that always feels odd to me, a time when I have to really think about what day of the week it is, a time when I want to get the so overrated New Years Eve out of the way. I've said before on this blog that I have no interest in New Years Eve celebrations - I'm very sensitive to the seasons and the way nature changes with them but when it comes to the totally artificial construct of the start of the New Year what is the point? Other than a rather weak excuse for people to get drunk!

Anyway this wasn't going to be the subject of this blog post! I was just going to make a comment on how much I enjoyed travelling this Christmas. I don't reckon to do a vast amount of travelling outside my two counties but it's more likely to happen at Christmas, meeting family and all that. Being able to get a lift from Salisbury station to my ultimate Dorset destination I let the 'train take the strain' and was pleased with what the train companies provided.

First leg on Christmas Eve was on the Tamar Valley line. There seems to be an ever present affection for this branch and rightly so of course! In this instance I found myself sitting opposite someone I knew and we chatted all the way to Plymouth. She made the observation that "people must think I'm mad liking public transport" (although she does drive as well). "No reason to think that at all" was my rejoinder on that one. For me using the train at this time was not only better environmentally but made the trip out my area even more of a special occasion. From Plymouth it was on to the 'Cornish Riviera' express for the non stop leg of my journey to Exeter. First Great Western had a leaflet in a pocket on the back of the seat in front regarding train safety which one was invited to read. Showing diagrammatically the arrangements of the various coaches I had to chuckle seeing what would have once been 'The Guards Van' now renamed 'The Train Controllers Office'.

A change at Exeter St Davids and onto the 'South West Trains' line that ultimately goes to Waterloo. Not only was there a computerised female voice to say what station we were approaching, what station we arrived at, and what the next stop was going to be but this info was automatically shown on a couple of overhead displays in each coach. During the other 99% of the journey the current time would be on displayed. A nice system I thought. As each station was passed its name would be dropped by the voice which showed a bit of sophistication in the system. This old 'Southern Line' is single tracked in places and so the we were held up for a while (near Tisbury I think) to allow the opposite direction train to pass through. The whole journey was uneventful and mostly on time apart from a minute or two slippage at Salisbury.

The return trip on Saturday was even more straightforward as there was no change to be made at Exeter. In fact a station announcement pointed out that one could change at Exeter onto a faster train to Plymouth, ours stopped at most of the intermediate stations. This wouldn't have really helped me as it would not have made an earlier connection to Gunnislake than my scheduled one. One or two comments on this longer section of the return journey might be pertinent here. The information system on the train which I had so praised earlier seemed to be on the blink here, sometimes in evidence sometimes not. We stopped for several minutes at Dawlish Warren for the previously mentioned fast train to overtake. The reason for the delay and the fact that it wouldn't affect our arrival time at Plymouth was explained, in fact we were right on time when we got to Plymouth Station. So ten out of ten on getting that bit of communication sorted out so well. What surprised me a little though was the fact that the London bound train on Christmas Eve had a trolley service which seemed to be well patronised but that the one coming back didn't have this facility. I was OK having had sandwiches provided by my Christmas hosts but was a little bemused by this lack of trolley service on a train whose timetable spanned the normal lunch period.

About an hour wait at Plymouth for my Tamar Valley train so ample time to get a paper and a pint of milk. There had been a large time gap in services to Gunnislake in the afternoon. However the recently introduced new timetable has given us an extra train and with the times spread more evenly. It wasn't so long ago that there was real concern about the branch lines in Devon and Cornwall continuing as they were but they seem to have gained a new lease of life.

One hears fewer concerns now about reliability and punctuality on the railways. I really believe that the rail companies are getting their act together and that public confidence in the system will continue to grow.

Happy Christmas

Lots and lots of things I would like to have blogged about before Christmas but no time left!

So just want to wish anyone who reads my ramblings a very Happy Christmas!

This driver should have been banned for ever

One of the things that really really irks me about the legal system in this country is the fact that someone can commit some relatively minor offence and then receive a disproportionately harsh punishment whilst another person does something that demands the stiffest of penalties and gets off relatively lightly. In other words there is not nearly enough differentiation between the two.

Looking at the Sky News site on the net one of their breaking news stories is regarding a Czech lorry driver who at the wheel of his 40 tonne juggernaut rammed cars that were in his way on the M1. Three drivers were left with whiplash, cars were seriously damaged but fortunately nobody was killed. The Czech was convicted of dangerous driving and criminal damage: he was sentenced to 15 months in jail and banned for three years. Why for heavens sake only three years? This wasn't a case of someone falling asleep at the wheel, which in itself would be grave enough, but it would seem a deliberately malicious act. Surely we shouldn't let that sort of person ever drive again on our roads. Extreme of me you might think, I say not - there are certain times when you have to go to the ultimate so bad is the offence.

Regarding foreign lorry drivers in this country it has been suggested that European drivers aren't all tested to the same HGV standard as the British ones. If this is true then this is something else that's very wrong with the EU. Instead of devoting so much time to totally unnecessary legislation why doesn't Brussels try and ensure a more consistent standard of HGV driving tests in the different states. Answers on a postcard please ...

Wassailing and a village pantomime

Yesterday proved very enjoyable for me, not Christmas Shopping, not watching 'Strictly Come Dancing' but attending two pleasing local events. In the morning I picked up three members of 'The Rubber Band' (two flautists and one ukulele player) and we set off for Cotehele House. Following on from the wonderful work done by artist Mary Martin and her partner James Armstrong Evans in preserving the old apple varieties of the Tamar Valley a 'Mother Orchard' has been created on the Cotehele Estate to follow on from what Mary and James have achieved. This has led to the old custom of wassailing taking place annually at the orchard.

So what is 'wassailing' you may ask. The process will vary slightly according to local custom but in essence it's all about waking up the trees and frightening any evil spirits away. Congregating near the main house a procession of I would think several dozen wended its way through the upper garden to the orchards at the top of the estate. We were led by the 'oss, a local lady dressed inside a horse type costume, followed by 'The Rubber Band' members and friends playing in their usual inimitable fashion and many others wanting to share the fun. And fun it was. Hilary, the town crier for our Parish, said (or shouted) out a welcome to one and all, there was a wassail song to sing, and incantations to repeat at the oldest and youngest tree. At the end of the incantations everyone was invited to make the greatest racket possible to frighten away any evil spirits: so there was much thumping of drums, blowing of whistles, clashing of biscuit tins, banging of dustbin lids and anything else to add to the din! Oh and apple juice was gently poured round these two trees to hopefully encourage a good crop - think I've got that right! More music as the procession returned to the House.

It was good to see photographers from at least two of our local press in attendance. Afterwards one of our flautists had to head off for Calstock Church to bell ring for a wedding but I still had two musicians with me - Liz played her ukulele in the car on the way home, much better than listening to a radio!

A very quick stop for a sandwich at home and then we were off to the popular village pantomime at Bere Ferrers. This year it was 'Little Red Riding Hood', my companion knows several of those involved in this production and my not having been to any sort of pantomime since ... well I really don't know when, I was very happy to do something different. Bere Ferrers is a small community tucked away at the bottom end of the deep peninsula that separates the Tamar and Tavy rivers and is a wonderful example of being relatively untouched, of retaining its character, of having a good community spirit. This panto illustrated the last point very well, one telling feature was the fact that the youngest cast member was just 4 years old, the oldest over 90!

Whether it's playing live music, acting out a pantomime or running a marathon, these are all examples of pursuits where your status or your wealth start to become irrelevant. As such all such activities are to be applauded in my book. Whilst it is fair to say one shouldn't be too parochial (I have been guilty of this on occasion) I do think it's so important to actively support what is happening in your own local area to some degree.

I have to say it was a very rewarding day - the first wassail I've attended and the first panto I've seen probably for decades. Yes an excellent days entertainment.

Piers Corbyn - an apology from me

On Monday 15 December I made a blog entry under the title "Bad weather NOT forecast by Piers Corbyn". This was in relation to the extreme weather we had just suffered in particular the deluge that occurred in East Devon and Somerset with people being rescued from cars stuck in the floods. Very nasty although here we were relatively unscathed. Usually I try to be forensic in my analysis but this time I failed. I used the very brief summary forecast on the weatheraction.com homepage to make my comment about Piers. What I should have noted in this particular instance is that not all the storms that were in his detailed forecast had been brought forward to his homepage and this event appears to have been one of those occasions. So an unreserved apology from me for my lax reporting.

From the Wright Brothers to Heathrow

It's not unusual for me to wake early and if this happens I will as often as not listen to 'News Briefing' at 5.30 on Radio4. For some reason I very often go back into a deep sleep thereafter and this morning was a case in point with me not getting out of bed till about half past eight. Oh how I miss that daily commute! Not.

Back to 'News Briefing'. Each day there is a rundown on the news headlines, weather forecast, review of the newspapers, business and sport reports. If I'm sufficiently with it I get a fair idea of what is happening in the wider world. Right at the end of 'News Briefing' a minute or two is devoted to noting significant events in former years of which that date is an anniversary. This can be quite interesting and one example on this morning's programme was the fact of the first flight by the Wright brothers on 17 December 1903 i.e. exactly 105 years ago. (More about the Wright Brothers in Wikipedia here). It's quite extraordinary how far aviation has come in such a short time.

This all brings me on to ... Heathrow Airport. Today right of centre blogger Iain Dale has had another go at Theresa Villiers, the Tory shadow on Transport, who firmly nailed her party's colours to the mast in opposing a third runway at London's main airport. Mr Dale doesn't beat about the bush - he is firmly agin the Tories on this one. It transpires now that certain government ministers are going cool on the extra runway proposal, there's even a suggestion it should be put to the vote in the House of Commons. Personally I hope that it doesn't go ahead, I know that Heathrow is running at almost full capacity but expanding the facility just seems so fundamentally wrong. Local residents have suffered far too much already and the thought of, and please God it never happens, a mid air incident above the airport in such a built up area doesn't bear thinking about.

One of the outcomes of the rapidly deteriorating value of sterling against other currencies, particularly the Euro, is the fact that holidays abroad suddenly got a lot more expensive. Significant numbers of people jet off to sunnier climes for Christmas and I suspect many will still do this next week as a goodly proportion of them would have booked long ago before the credit crisis really took hold. But what will happen in 2009? Will a lot more UK residents suddenly realise that yes this country has a lot to offer and, assuming petrol prices stay down, a holiday in the home country could look like a very attractive option. After the last two wet summers you would think that a better one should be on the cards too. As a nation holidays are very important to us and are one of the last things we would wish to do without. Tourism in my two counties just might benefit a little next year providing operators maintain reasonable prices.

The worrying low value of the pound could have a silver lining and of course we might attract more foreign holidaymakers to our shores as well!

Cigarettes under counter in Queens Speech

I've railed before about the absurd proposal to make shopkeepers put their tobacco products out of sight under the counter (go to the topic column on the right and click "smoking" for my thoughts on the subject). Just so that there is no doubt I'll say again that I don't smoke, never have done and hate the thought of it. But now that the matter has resurfaced as part of the recent 'Queens Speech' I shall have to let rip again.

Above a certain age it is perfectly legal to smoke so why is it in anyway acceptable to tell a retailer that he or she cannot display cigarettes openly. It is legal to sell them or it isn't, there's no half and half situation here, that to me is as plain as daylight. As I've noted before excess alcohol consumption can ruin your health and in the worse case scenario can lead to premature death so why are the supermarkets allowed to have their booze on public display? I've pointed out too the impracticality of keeping the fags below the counter in a busy retail environment and the cost to the shopkeeper in preparing for this nonsense legislation.

We are told that the new law will apply first to supermarkets and then to the small shops and I believe that it was Lord Mandelson who came up with the idea that small businesses shouldn't suffer initially. That bit might sound a decent concession but is it? My argument on that aspect is that how do you define a supermarket - a huge number of small shops are laid out on the supermarket principle and many of them are in groupings like Mace and Spar. So will they be included in the first group to be affected by the new law? As usual not thought through.

I have been trying to think of any precedent in this country to this draconian legislation. Now I don't know now whether it was a new law or something akin to a Code of Practice but some might point out that the magazines banned to the 'top shelf' could be an example of something similar. Not at all because whether one agrees or not about soft porn magazines being sold they are still on open display and the retailer hasn't incurred extra costs. The other one is solvents, I've no idea whether glue sniffing and suchlike is still prevalent among young people but I think that it's mandatory for ID to be produced or at least I've seen individual stores with notices to that effect.

As I mentioned in a previous rant there are specialist tobacconists about - I can think of a well known one in Exeter - what are they supposed to do? I know that the health police will point out that Canada has already gone down the route of keeping tobacco products under cover but that doesn't make it any more right. Back to my original argument: tobacco is either legal or illegal, it is as simple as that.

Bad weather NOT forecast by Piers Corbyn

It was a week ago when I last blogged about the latest forecast by Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com. Piers reckoned we would get a storm that weekend, he was as usual totally wrong. No prophecy was made on his website of the very poor weather we experienced in the southwest over this most recent weekend. The heavy rain led to very bad conditions on the roads and curtailment of some rail journeys. East Devon and Somerset were particularly affected and sadly an elderly gent in the latter county lost his life when his car was trapped in the floodwater. I'm not aware of any properties getting flooded locally but the Tamar burst its banks, making the riverside path impassable in places. The Tamar has a habit of rising and falling very quickly and with a full moon the other day we now have spring tides which doesn't help.

On the summary page on the Weatheraction website the next storm of note is around Christmas Eve. Will Piers manage to get it right this time?

A cracking concert yesterday evening

I've written about both 'The Calstock Singers' and 'Under the Fingers' before (revision time: 'Under the Fingers' are 4 of our local talented instrumentalists who between them play recorders, cello, harp and guitar). They combined last night to delight their audience with 'More Mulled Music', a Christmas Concert at the Peterloo Poets hall in Calstock. Three friends and yours truly arrived early and were able to bag seats in the front row this time. The programme started at 7.30 and with a half hour break in the middle continued through to 10 o'clock. When I reported on the three previous concerts they performed at this venue I was full of praise for them but there was always the thought "can they keep this incredible standard going" knowing that they had to look at a new programme each time. No need to worry, as ever they were on absolutely cracking form! By the way when I say "three previous concerts" I mean the last three, the ones I saw, because I have a feeling that they may have performed there previously - must check on this sometime.

So far as the instrumentalists were concerned there were a few variations this time: while waiting for the concert to start a clarinetist whose name unfortunately eludes me played some gentle music from up in the gallery, in some of the items Rosie did some drumming in addition to playing her more usual recorders and guitar, there was more accompaniment than before from Nicola on the Xylophone (though sadly no 'Tamar Broom Dance' or 'Tico Tico' from her - I love its sound as a solo instrument), and we had Peter, new to these concerts, playing the piano. As ever Liz and Jenny were there playing guitar and harp in their usual brilliant manner and Pauline was alternating between conducting the choir and playing her electric cello.

One or two comments on the singing now: we had Cliff and Nicola combining together to sing 'The Final Barge' one of the pieces from 'The Song of the Tamar', their voices blended beautifully in this lovely song and I hope we shall see them duetting together in future. I have to say that Cliff is one of the larger members of the choir and Nicola the smallest but with Cliff sitting down and Nicola standing head height wasn't too different! There was a very funny Cornish take on 'The Twelve Days of Christmas' and a few dance steps ably performed by our MC Richard and two of the ladies in the choir at the end of 'The Woodcutter's Song'. Richard as usual kept proceedings ticking along gently and his jokes are as awful as ever. Once again performers and audience were indebted to Harry Chambers for the use of the 'Peterloo Poets' building and Harry read four short poems during the course of the evening. I should have mentioned too the brief appearances from Rob adding extra comedy twists to the proceedings as well as demonstrating what a fine singing voice he has.

There was a raffle in aid of that most worthy of charities 'Shelterbox' which in my book is the nearest thing yet devised to the perfect relief organisation. When the first two tickets drawn were those bought by members of the Singers we were joking that something funny was going on but then members of the audience started winning prizes so that was all right then! I don't recall the exact figure raised but it was certainly in excess of £100. As usual we could avail ourselves of a glass of mulled wine and a delicious mince pie, all included in the ticket price of just £5.

Now if I only I had known I could have stayed at home and watched the final of 'The X Factor' - I'm jesting of course. As with 'Strictly Come Dancing' I've never watched the ITV alternative on Saturday evenings. I did have a quick look today on the internet at a video of the lady who won on this TV show so that I can be a little informed. I'm sure that she's very talented in many people's eyes but for me such offerings can't in any way be compared with the marvellous show I was privileged to witness in Calstock yesterday evening.

I'll just add a couple of links here and here for Peterloo Poets and Shelterbox. Finally if you live in the Calstock area and would like to join The Calstock Singers they resume their rehearsals on Monday evenings in January (starting at 7.30 pm) at The Old Chapel in Sand Lane.

In support of Posties

There was a piece on the news last night about what was alleged as being new onerous demands on our postmen and postwomen. Their union maintain that the posties are being told to walk at 4 mph on their rounds, not so say Royal Mail - we are asking them to average 2.1 mph. Now both sides can't both be right, or can they? It could be that they have to walk at 4 mph along the street as there will be a lot of stopping to put letters in boxes and get parcels signed for thus bringing the average for the shift for the shift to a much lower figure - 2.1 even. I don't know.

What seems to be happening is that Royal Mail are using some computer software called 'Pegasus' to work out optimal routes for our posties. Not a bad idea it might be thought but here's the thing, Pegasus comes from Canada and I can pretty well guarantee that the way post is delivered over there bears almost no resemblance to how it happens in the UK. For a start a Canadian won't expect mail to be delivered to his front door, no it's a box at the gate at best. And typically their postmen won't be going up hill and down dale and contending with steps and snappy dogs as ours do. So has Pegasus been modified to take account of the huge number of variables that exist in this country. Possibly but it wouldn't surprise in the slightest if it hadn't.

On the BBC News website folk were invited to "Have Your Say" on the subject and didn't they do just that with huge numbers emailing in. I tried to absorb quite a bit of this to add to my own observations on the local scene as it were. A number of those commenting were relatives of posties and many of these pointed out the bullying by managers prevalent in parts of the mail service. Admittedly they in turn are frequently under pressure from those above them but I have to say that I have absolutely no time for bullying in the workplace. Time and time again those at the sharp end and getting least pay are getting flak from the end customer and not being supported by their managers. I accept that there might be the occasional indolent postie that needs to be chased a bit but almost all the 'career' postmen and women do an absolutely brilliant job. Management have to get into their fat heads that there is an upper practical limit to the amount our posties can do (and health and morale are really important as well) and if the 4 mph speed asked for is true then it is totally ridiculous to demand that a person carrying bags of mail in all weathers should adhere to this. Added to that there are packages to be signed for and this all adds to the time. Many stories too about managers who have never graduated through the system and therefore don't really know what it's like to do a round. This wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Thinking about things here I have to say that my postman is cheerful, reliable and pretty well always gets it right. Interestingly and coincidentally today's 'Western Morning News' has a piece by one of their reporters, accompanying a postwoman based on the Honiton sorting office as she drives her rural round.

One final point to round off this piece: I referred earlier to 'career' posties; we are fortunate here to have regulars but I believe in some cities it's difficult to get the permanent staff they need and so they employ a certain number of agency workers and it's possible that deliveries are a little less reliable in such circumstances. Another plus for living in the country!

Stargazy pie and commonsense policing

I think that I have said before that occasionally I will watch 'The One Show' on BBC1 and tonight by chance happened to be one of those times. It was really pleasing to see a feature on 'Stargazy Pie', one of those dishes I would love to try sometime. For the uninitiated it is a Cornish Dish, a pastry topped fish pie with five different types of seafish in it plus, and this makes it so different, pilchards with their heads and tails sticking up out of the top of the pie. It is traditionally eaten on Tom Bawcock's Eve in Mousehole down in the far west of the county. The day of the celebration is December 23rd when the story goes Tom Bawcock came back to the village with his boat laden with fish at a time of great hardship and famine in Mousehole. I think they did a pretty good job on the show telling the story and some nice shots inside 'The Ship Inn' there and of the village's spectacular Christmas lights around the harbour.

Another piece on the programme that interested me was about the fact that a few police forces (four I think they said) are trialling what was described as 'commonsense policing'. In a nutshell rather than automatically charging someone for a low level crime with the associated ridiculous amount of bureaucracy police on the street were able to use their discretion. An example was the case of a young lad pinching a bottle of perfume from a shop as a present for his girlfriend. He was caught and the store concerned were happy not to press charges as the bottle was returned and the young thief wrote a letter of apology for what he had done. At long last a bit of commonsense had been applied! Rather than being totally target driven the idea is to let those at the sharp end use their own judgement and by so doing free up an enormous amount of otherwise unproductive police time. This chasing of targets in the public services is something I get very steamed up about: I know just how creative certain people can be in doing things just to get the boxes ticked and with the police it's stupid to be driven entirely by meeting your clear up quota and number of arrests. When the government talk about crime levels falling I'm totally sceptical - I think that it's a known fact for instance that some people won't report a crime to the police, particularly if it's relatively minor, because they don't have any confidence in them turning up.

Going back to the rest of the programme actress Kate Winslet was the star on the sofa and she was talking about her recent films and there was some film footage too of reindeer stags rutting in The Cairngorms. All in all some interesting viewing.

Piers wrong - no storm this weekend

If you follow this blog regularly you will know that I have often criticised weather forecaster Piers Corbyn, one of the better known deniers of man-made global warming. It's not on that issue that I berate him in these jottings, it's the monthly forecasts he puts out that gets me going. He had a very, very bad October in which he was wrong in every single respect; November was a little better and I gave him 3 out of 10 for that one - slightly generous perhaps, spreading a little bit of my Christmas spirit and all that!

In his December summary Piers lists his anticipated storm periods and says the timings could be + or - one day. Fair enough I guess. Today is the seventh and Piers has 6 to 8 December (with the plus or minus one day tolerance) as one of these times of storm. In fact he goes further and reckons we would get bashed by two such events, one on the sixth and the other two days later. Just in case it hasn't been noticed there has been glorious sunshine over the south west this weekend: a nice ridge of high pressure has lain over the south of Britain, 'up north' it may not have been so good but they certainly haven't had Piers' promised storm over this period. A front is moving south over the country (we are supposed to get it tomorrow afternoon) but it looks to be a relatively innocuous affair, not a feature that would merit the word 'storm' that's for sure.

So not good for Piers this time. His next major weather event flagged up is for a storm on the 23 to 24 December (he always has something dramatic to give us for Christmas!!) and then snow on Christmas Day itself. On the 'Weatheraction.com' website there is an article reproduced from the 'Daily Star' in which Piers apparently made the comment "We are 75% sure that there will be snow in many - but not all - locations offered by bookies this Christmas" and goes on to say "Our advice to beat the credit crunch is to place a bet on a white Christmas because it's never looked more likely". Now I've looked at the William Hill website and they evidently take separate bets on snow at Aberdeen, Glasgow, Cardiff and London falling during the 24 hours of Christmas Day, I suspect that the other bookies do the same. Will Piers be right this time? He can't always get it wrong! I shall either be praising him or lambasting him before the end of the month. Whatever the odds presented I won't be placing any bets but it seems that a lot of money has already been staked.

First motorway and trunk dialling 50 years old

As the years roll by it is all too easy to forget the speed at which changes have taken place in the UK particularly as regards communication, in both the transport and telephony senses. This was really brought home to me listening to the 'Today' programme on Radio4 this morning because exactly 50 years ago the Queen calling from Bristol was the first person to use the subscriber trunk dialling system or STD as it was then known. This technology enabled long distance phone calls to be made without going through the operator. Wow! In this case, recorded and filmed for posterity, the Queen spoke to the Lord Provost of Edinburgh - I think he was rather expecting the call! There was some lovely black and white footage on the BBC news website and the Queen of course was holding what by today's standards was a big heavy phone. I remember them! Of course it was quite some time before this facility was available for those living in Salcombe, my home town.

Coincidentally the six o'clock news this evening reminded us that it was fifty years ago that Britain's first motorway was opened - the Preston ByPass. I wonder how many folk are under the illusion that it was the M1 that was finished first; this would be a good question for a pub quiz. Again some black and white footage shown, how motoring has changed, cars without seat belts, airbags or side impact bars - how did we ever survive those years.

I have to say that I was quite taken back that two such significant events had happened at the same time, something I was totally unaware of. They say you learn something new every day!

Piers Corbyn - November forecast review

At the end of October I had reviewed the weather forecast put out by Piers Corbyn for that particular month and found that it was one of his worst efforts with literally nothing right so zero out of ten I'm afraid. Now comes the judgement for November. Here was his forecast then (on his Weatheraction.com website) for the month just gone:

"November 2008. Dramatic changes. Cold wintry spells separated by heavy rain, floods and storms. Severe Weather Warning: Gale damage with North Sea storm surge risks (70% likely) and/or sleet and snow espec around 12 - 14 th & 25 - 28 Nov."

This is a little bit better Piers! He has brought out the sleet/snow angle OK and although we haven't seen any of the white stuff here during this present cold wintry spell I am prepared to accept that further east and north there could have been some. Regarding the reference to the 12 - 14 th the roughest weather was around the 10 th in fact but not really anything more than what you would expect in late autumn. North Sea storm surge? Didn't hear anything about that but in fairness that was only a 70% risk. Difficult to give a fair marking but as it's getting close to Christmas let's say 3 out of 10. Now what goodies will Piers bring for December? I hope he doesn't keep me in suspense!

Thoughts on the terror attack in Mumbai

It would be wrong for me to make no reference on this blog to the horrific events that have been taking place in Mumbai. Most importantly our sympathies should go out to the relatives of those killed and injured in the senseless slaughter. There are though one or two other points to make:

• As happened after 9/11 in New York and as happened after the more recent terrorist outrages in London it is vital to try and resume a degree of normality in Mumbai just as quickly as possible and there are signs that the people in India are doing just that.
• Fortunately one of the terrorists wasn't killed thus availing the authorities of the opportunity to question him and find out more about the motivation for and planning of the attack.
• There is finger pointing in the direction of Pakistan - of late there appears to have been an uneasy truce between that country and India over the issue of Kashmir. I can only hope that wise heads prevail and that there is no escalation in tension between these two neighbouring nuclear powers.

Council to bus air passengers

Following on from my previous post Cornwall County Council are rightly going to pay for the busing of passengers unable to use Newquay Airport over the next three weeks. In the case of those booked with Ryanair this could mean taking passengers to and from Bristol or Bournemouth because that company doesn't use Plymouth or Exeter airports. I recall that it wasn't so long ago that Ryanair were bitterly complaining about some airport taxes being applied at Newquay and, in their usual forthright fashion, they have spoken out about this fiasco, comparing Cornwall County Council to "the Keystone Cops".

Cornwall have said that there might be grounds for compensation to those affected by the Newquay Airport shutdown. I'm not quite sure how that can be assessed mind you but I fully approve of their organising buses or taxis to the other local airports. As it us i.e. the council tax payers who will ultimately be paying the extra costs of the next three weeks then the Council need to come clean and explain what has gone wrong. Obviously safety is paramount and if three weeks are now needed to get systems in place so be it. But somebody needs to do some explaining about why the transfer from the military to the new owner has got fouled up.

Embarrassment at Newquay Airport hitch

Next Monday is December the First, the day the RAF withdraw from RAF St Mawgan and Newquay Airport becomes a standalone entity. Well this was the script and, although the RAF are leaving, the other part of the plan has hit a snag. From December 1st to the 19th of the month all intended flights will be grounded. Why? New airport owners Cornwall County Council can't obtain the necessary Civil Aviation Authority licence because the new traffic control system just isn't ready. There was a hope that perhaps RAF personnel could stay for this interim period to keep the thing going but they have already been committed elsewhere.

This is all very embarrassing for the Council, it's not as if they haven't had plenty of time to make the necessary changes to the operation of the airport (I think that previously the military were responsible for all air traffic movements). Airlines using Newquay will have to bus their passengers to other airports from which they operate such as Plymouth and Exeter.

The unhappy start to the new chapter in the life of Newquay Airport reminds me of the chaos that occurred when Heathrow's Terminal Five opened. Terminal 5 doesn't seem to be in the news of late so presumably all is sweetness and light there. Did everyone get their luggage back in the end? Frustratingly we don't seem to get long term media follow ups on these types of story. In fairness of course the subject might have been revisited but I've just not been around at the right moment.

I don't think the VAT cut will work

Roll Up! Roll Up! Starting Monday for the next 13 months a massive national sale! Great 2% saving on most of our lines! Now I don't have a heavy consuming lifestyle so perhaps I'm not a good person to make this judgement BUT I just cannot see a significant amount of extra spending by the Great British Public as a result of the VAT reduction. The 2.5% drop equates to approximately 2% of the total selling price and for the life of me I just can't see that igniting a spending spree, I really can't. Retailers might up their sales by really slashing prices even as Marks and Spencer did the other day for just one day but the VAT reduction is so minuscule in real terms that I don't believe it will materially affect buying decisions.

Businesses aren't too happy I understand with all the adjustments they are having to make to their computer systems etc to accommodate the VAT change, and knowing that they will have to repeat the exercise in 13 months time. For all their alleged support for small and medium sized enterprises (SME) it seems that the government just do not understand how things work at the sharp end. Quite a number of businesses are reluctant to lower their prices to reflect the change in VAT and I don't blame them.

The government's projections in last Monday's PBR are so optimistic that they don't seem real to me. It would be nice if the recession was short and shallow but I just don't see it happening that way. Labour figures for borrowing and later repaying our debts seem to be based on a best case scenario, if they have called it wrong then our problems will be much worse than we can imagine.

An enjoyable walk and MOT pass

I don't think anyone can say we don't get enough variety in our weather here in the UK. Today it's been thoroughly miserable here in the Tamar Valley, misty drizzle and feeling a bit raw whereas a friend having to go into Plymouth reported some nice sunshine there! However yesterday although cold was gloriously sunny over most of the region and this time we did have our fair share. For me yesterday's weather was particularly fortuitous as it was the day for the car's MOT test. It might seem a bit of an odd connection to make so let me explain. I always take the car to the same garage for the test and, as car drivers will know, the whole thing takes about an hour. What I like to do, weather permitting, is to use that time for a walk because just across the main road that passes the garage a track takes you deep down into the Tamar Valley and then gives a choice of return routes. Beautifully quiet it is rewarding walking and I was delighted to see quite a lot of valerian and some fuchsia still blooming in the little village I pass through. Wrapped up well against the cold and with sparkling visibility it was an absolute joy to be out in the fresh air.

Getting back to the garage I discovered that the car had almost passed its MOT - a very minor problem had showed up which I was able to resolve on the day and then submit the car for a partial retest. Hooray, it passed! The garage concerned is very organised in that it sends out an MOT reminder a month before the certificate expires; this is very handy because of course one can get a '13 month' MOT in effect by going a month early. If you really depend on the car being available 24/7 and 365 days a year it means that any necessary repairs can be carried out before the old MOT expires. OK you have to part with your (currently) £53.10 a little earlier but at least there isn't a last minute panic.

It's good to get the MOT sorted mainly because of the fact that you can't be quite sure what repairs might be necessary. Hopefully I can keep motoring in my 20+ year old car for some time to come!

VAT to be reduced or a huge bluff

The mainstream media (msm) are full of stories about an impending cut in the standard rate of VAT from 17.5% to 15%. This, we are told, is going to be one of the planks to be announced in the Pre Budget Report (PBR) tomorrow afternoon in the attempt to stimulate the economy. But is it all a huge bluff to wrong foot the opposition I ask myself. If we assume that there will be a VAT reduction then letting that information out early seems totally bizarre - it allows the opposition parties to examine the arithmetic and prepare a counter-attack.

If the 'leak' was deliberate then once again it shows the huge disdain of one group of people to the rest. The Chancellor is to make his statement to MPs in the House of Commons and it could not be more wrong for them to be getting information already in the public domain. I think I've blogged before (or at least I certainly meant to) about the way that the main thrust of someones speech is released to the media prior to the audience listening to the speech get to hear it. This is very discourteous and absolutely unacceptable in my book, yet it is taken as normal procedure these days. So far as the lowering of standards in public service is concerned this is a prime example. Of course the media are benefiting from this so don't expect any interjection from them about this practice.

For the sake of argument let us suppose that VAT will be reduced by 2.5%. Now imagine someone going into an electrical shop to buy some white goods costing, before VAT, £300. The VAT on this at 17.5% is £52.50, reduced to 15% it would be £45 giving a saving therefore of £7.50. Now would the prospect of paying £7.50 less on the item actually sway the purchasing decision. I would say probably not. However seeing a big notice saying £70 off (because the retailer needs the sale) might do the trick. Because of sluggish sales prices are likely to fall anyway without state intervention. In fairness I have to say that some businesses might gain to a degree with a VAT reduction e.g. a service industry where they have to invest in a stock of spare parts which may only trickle out as sales go fairly slowly.

Another aspect of VAT reduction is that it is mainly of benefit to the very well off who have a high consumption lifestyle. For those of us whose main outgoings are things such as food, rent, mortgage, council tax help with VAT is not very relevant. As I hinted at the beginning it may all be a con anyway and VAT rates won't be touched. In less than 24 hours we will all know.

Hatherleigh farm blog highly recommended

I've just been casting my eye over a blog that you can read if you click here. Written by Paula it gives a fascinating insight into the running of a small organic farm near Hatherleigh in West Devon. Well illustrated and highly readable Paula's love for farming, wildlife and the countryside shines through. Evidently she and her family sort of fell into farming, starting off with the purchase of a goat I believe! The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) helped set up the blog; they point out that the views expressed are those of Paula with which they may not necessarily agree. However they rightly state that "it is essential that people understand farming and farmers better" in relation to the organisation's desire that farming should thrive in England. I couldn't agree more with that!

Some quick retail therapy

Retail therapy? Well necessary shopping so far as I am concerned. I may or may not have mentioned on this blog but I'm not heavily into shopping - it's not a hobby of mine and quite definitely not an addiction. Partly this could be down to my gender but whatever I couldn't put off any longer getting a couple of new pullovers. When I heard that Debenhams had started a three day sale with 25% off across the board and that M & S were having a one day sale I thought I had better nip into Plymouth sharpish and take advantage of the opportunity. I could have driven in and used the ever useful 'Park and Ride' facility but instead opted to use my bus pass.

Now I'm no longer faced with a daily commute travelling by public transport has become a more attractive proposition. My own observations in the Tamar Valley is that the bus and train companies are getting their act together: through most of the day we have an hourly bus service between Gunnislake and Tavistock whilst the onward section to Plymouth sees buses running every 15 minutes or so. So far as the trains are concerned a new timetable is coming out next month and I'm led to believe that there will be at least one extra train on the 'Tamar Valley Line'. Again, based on what I see, Gunnislake Station looks to be increasing in passenger use.

Back to last Thursday and I took the 9.48 bus from our village into Tavistock, changed buses there and was walking down through Plymouth's shopping centre by 11 o'clock. By 11.30 I had been in and out of Debenhams and was boarding the bus to go home - I don't hang about on this shopping lark! On the last leg back to my village from Tavistock I met an elderly friend from the village so a chance to have a bit of a natter. All in all I had been away from home for just under four hours with zero travelling cost or stress; my two lambswool jumpers were actually for sale at half price, so total cost to me of £25 - I was well pleased with that result!

A few observations: travelling off peak on public transport (in this area at least) never seems to be too busy; although I enjoy driving I don't have any hangups in letting the bus or train take the strain occasionally. Plymouth has excellent park-and-ride facilities and dedicated bus lanes in places, all to the good in my book. Another point worth a mention is just how space efficient buses are compared with cars - our small local buses carrying 30 odd passengers can't be more than two average cars in length if that, although obviously wider of course. Assuming the buses need the same amount of empty space fore and aft as a car when driving along then it can be seen just how much better at optimizing road space a bus can be.

One final comment, when Gordon Brown supplies something for free it's a shame not to take advantage. Mind you purists may frown about using the word "free" in relation to bus passes, it all has to be paid for somewhere - mainly out of general taxation and with shortfalls coming out of "our" council tax. But it's certainly nice to receive a ticket that says £0.00, that's for sure!

Forty five years since President Kennedy shot

Where were you 45 years ago today? Or, putting it another way, where were you when you heard about the assassination of President John F Kennedy? It seems to be the accepted wisdom that all of us old enough to remember can recollect where we were when that shattering piece of news became apparent.

In my case I was in a pub in Heavitree, Exeter either playing skittles or, more likely, in support of my colleagues team from my then workplace. The landlord came into the skittle alley to say that Kennedy had been shot, before we had finished he came back to say Kennedy was dead. So yes even after 45 years it is still in the old memory banks.

So much has been written since about this momentous event but we still can't be sure if Lee Harvey Oswald was the lone gunman. I still lean toward a conspiracy theory but will we ever really know after all this time.

My worry now is about whether one or more Americans want to see Obama dead. I just hope that the intelligence and security services over there are up to the job.

John Sergeant quits 'Strictly Come Dancing'

I have a confession to make ... I'm not sure how to say this ... well, here goes ... I've never watched 'Strictly Come Dancing'! Gosh I feel better with getting that off my chest. Why I'm devoting a post to this subject of course is because of the withdrawal of John Sergeant from the competition. I've just done a Google Blog Search on "John Sergeant" and see that there have been nearly 6,000 blog entries in the past week including those words. Of course there might be another John Sergeant but I bet most of those entries refer to our man.

Although I'm watching this saga unfold with wry amusement it's our love affair with audience participation TV that is really intriguing me and is the reason for this post. 'Strictly', which seems to be the accepted abbreviation for the show, is just one of many current and recent TV programmes which invite the armchair audience to vote on the proceedings. From the producer's perspective it is a wonderful formula - come up with something that's cheap, popular and a source of income from a share of the cost of the phone calls, it has to be a winner. Actually I'm not sure about the "cheap" aspect on reflection, I don't know how much it costs to have Bruce Forsyth in as compere or the judges for that matter. The motivation for people to spend money on phone calls could be a combination of factors. Two of these might be, firstly, a desire to be able to influence an outcome in as much as we might feel that most of what happens in our country today is out of our hands particularly in the political arena. The second point I thought of is do we need periodically to be part of some collective action, something we feel we want to share with millions of other people across the country, rather like those big sporting occasions in which Britain might just have a chance to win. H'm, can't make up my mind on that one.

Come this weekend it will be decision time for me: do I watch 'Strictly' to see what all the fuss is about or do I go with my normal instinct and not waste time on it. I won't commit myself at the moment. One other thing to mention is the clip of JS and his partner on the news since the furore broke of John seemingly walking across the stage to the right with his partner in tow behind him. I feel that I'm nowhere near up to date regarding today's fashions in dancing!

Police response way over the top

I don't know what it is about those we can loosely describe as "being in authority" but it seems that they are forever making poor judgements. This has just showed up in the way the police dealt with an alleged crime committed by a Plymouth man. The story goes as follows: Mark Frearson took leave from work so that he could spend time with his seven year old son Harry who it seems would normally be living at the home of Mr Frearson's wife, the couple being separated. One evening Mark and his son go shopping, Mark tells Harry not to wander off when they get to the till but the seven year old does just that. After some minutes of frantic searching father finds son and gives him a smack on the bottom (or the back of the leg depending on what report you read or hear). No suggestion that Mr Frearson is ranting and raving or causing any other form of distress. A witness sees the smack and reports matter to the police. A few hours later police arrive in force at Mr Frearson's house - presumably the witness had noted Mr Frearson's car registration number before he drove off from the shops. When I say they "arrived in force" we are talking about no less than four police and a child protection officer! Harry is made to strip so they can see if there was any evidence of injuries, Mr Frearson stated that they found none. Harry is taken away to spend the night at his mother's home. On the evidence of this one witness Mr Frearson was arrested and taken to the police station. After a while the police said they couldn't carry out an interview because the witness "was not in a condition to give a statement". Mr Frearson was kept in a police cell overnight and well into the following morning at which time the witness decided to withdraw the allegation. Mr Frearson alleges that there was no apology from the police when he was released and is, understandably, not happy with the situation. He has made a formal complaint about the matter.

Now I'm not going to delve into the rights and wrongs of smacking in this post, suffice to say that there seems to have been only the single smack and having heard Mr Frearson on the radio he does come over as a genuine concerned parent. What I want to know though is who was the imbecile in the police force who decided on this totally over the top way of dealing with what appears to be a very minor misdemeanour. There was a time when you would trust them to be proportionate in how they responded to possible crimes. Not in this instance though, did it really need four of them plus a child support officer to respond to the allegation. Having removed Harry from Mr Frearson's house did they need to criminalise the father by keeping him in a cell overnight. Of course they didn't. What on earth is the matter with those making such ludicrous decisions? We are paying them good money for doing it right but they get it wrong too often.

As I said earlier Mr Frearson has made a complaint to the Devon and Cornwall Police Authority, very justifiably based on the known facts. A full and unreserved apology is the very least that the police should now give as a result of their crass behaviour. One final thought - policing is a two way thing, alienate a member of the public for no good reason and it wouldn't be surprising if that person decided not to help the police when assistance was needed.

Politicians and Historians

In the past I have had a go at politicians who have had little regard or knowledge of history with the implication that if they were better versed in the subject their decision making would be improved. I need to row back a little on this having listened to a programme on Radio 4 the other morning. As an aside I would mention that if only we had days 30 hours long I would listen a lot more to that particular channel - there is plenty of thought provoking talk on it.

Back to this particular programme, only on for a quarter of an hour, well it was all about the relationship between politicians and historians in this country! I think they described Tony Blair as "tone deaf" when it came to history, something I can well believe but the programme did remark favourably on Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown. In the Thatcher case she called in all the best historians for a meeting at the time when the reunification of Germany was taking place - she was concerned about whether the larger Germany would be some sort of threat. It seems that they were able to calm any fears that she had. Much more recently Gordon Brown assembled a number of historians over the question of 'Britishness', one of his big things at the time but I doubt that is at the front of his mind just now. One other point I"ll mention is the valid comment by Roy Hattersley that one has to be very careful about applying the lessons of history to present day events because the surrounding circumstances can be very different.

It proved to be an interesting 15 minutes of radio encouraging me to reappraise my viewpoint.

Reprieve for bendy cucumbers

Just in case you missed it last week the EU will be removing or toning down many of its regulations regarding the size and shape of the fruit and vegetables we purchase. This, it should be noted, doesn't apply to all our greengrocery (such as apples for instance) and will not come into effect until next summer. Better late than never I suppose.

I was reminded that I wanted to write this piece in the blog when I read the 'Western Morning News' this morning. A regular Monday columnist is Kate Ironside, someone who is unashamedly pro EU, but to her credit is prepared to flag up its more barmy decisions. Like me she is pleased enough about the scheme to restore some commonsense into the world of buying fruit and veg. However she states that the regulations only came into being because the different countries had their own rules and with a uniform standard UK cucumbers could be sold in France, or vice-versa "without fear of falling foul of different national standards". H'm, if you say so Kate.

One of my biggest hobby-horses is the question of food waste and I feel it borders on the immoral if fruit or vegetables aren't available to buy for purely cosmetic reasons. Surely the shopper can decide for his or herself whether they are happy or not to purchase a slightly bent cucumber without having to be told whether the curvature merits it being Class 1, Class 2 or even beyond the pale! Someone in Brussels had to frame the regulations, others in this country (trading standards presumably) would then be responsible for making sure standards were being adhered to. All this using our money of course! Absolute madness.

At least the EU have started to own up to the stupidity of it all.

Osborne upsets Gordon Brown show

One of those things that irks me is the way that much of the media in this country will get bound up in just a few of the aspects of a multi faceted problem and almost ignore some other very valid points. This has happened with the really massive depreciation of the pound sterling, not only against the dollar but against a basket of other currencies including the Euro. Now our Prime Minister has been saying that we are better prepared to deal with the downturn than other developed countries. So how come the pound is slipping so fast; in America one of their largest firms and a real icon to their people 'General Motors' is perilously close to bankruptcy yet the dollar is doing well against sterling.

Gordon Brown has been at the G20 meeting on the other side of the pond doing his international statesman thing. When over there he gave his reaction to the comments made by Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to 'The Times': he attacked Osborne over his "partisan talk" in criticising the government over its policies whereby he (Osborne) stated that there could be a collapse of sterling if the government kept trying to borrow its way out of trouble. The Labour reaction is all about politics - no doubt the Tories would behave in a similar way if there was a role reversal - but Brown is 100% wrong in thinking that the opposition should meekly say nothing. The sterling situation is a very serious matter surely but you can be certain that Labour will be hounding Osborne if the pound goes downhill tomorrow when the markets reopen.

I'm not an economist but I do appreciate that there are winners and losers when the comparative value of your currency changes. It's the same argument of course when interest rates alter. Bearing in mind that oil is paid for in dollars and that our contribution to the EU is paid in Euros then it is quite evident that these two items are costing us far more as a result of the pound's weakness. The Opposition have a great opportunity to really get at the occupant of No 10 on this issue and I don't see how Brown can pin the problems with the pound on some other third party.

Although it might seem that I'm a supporter of the Tories that's not necessarily the case. They have been strangely mute in the last few weeks and it's quite possible that they would have 'messed up' if they had been in power for the past 11 years. But they do have a duty to speak up when dire events are happening around us and I'm pleased that George Osborne has now found his voice.

Local girls walk for 'Children in Need'

The BBC had their annual 'Children in Need' bash last Friday and they believe they might well eclipse last year's record breaking total once all the money is in. I have to say that I seldom watch the show these days (I'm not a paid up member of the Terry Wogan appreciation society), it's not really my cup of tea. On the evening before two local girls rang my doorbell - "Would you sponsor us to walk to school tomorrow in aid of 'Children in Need'" they enquired. It turned out that they intended to walk the 5 miles to Callington College and I was more than pleased to make a contribution to the cause. More than the actual walk itself it was the fact that they were prepared to do something for no personal gain and moreover spend considerable time trekking around our large village to ask for sponsorship that impressed me.

Until recently walking along the busy A390 to Callington would have seemed a foolhardy adventure but now with a separate footpath/cycle path such a traipse is a practical proposition. I think they said that they would start their walk at 7.30.

The 'Children in Need' extravaganza of course benefits from its own momentum and high exposure. Even so it is amazing how much money continues to flow in. What I do fear though, as the recession starts to bite, is that small low profile charities in particular will feel the pinch.

More to come on my thoughts regarding the dire economic situation we are in.

Volunteers needed for Festival Committee

On Wednesday evening we had our AGM for the Gunnislake Festival. I've been Secretary for this annual event for the last year or three and have decided that it is time to step down from this post. Similarly Bob and Nora, respectively Chairman and Treasurer, have retired from their positions. In Gill we now have a new Chairman for the Committee but no volunteers were forthcoming for either Secretary or Treasurer. So if you know of anyone who would be interested in taking these jobs on please get in touch..

There will be an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on Wednesday 7th January when it is hoped that some folk will be prepared to come forward to keep this popular local Festival going.

Now Charles can get his bus pass

Here we are then November 14th and the heir to the Throne is 60 today. Congratulations to Prince Charles. It was good I thought that the Queen publicly praised Charles a day or two ago regarding his good works, praise that I thought was well merited.

No doubt now that Charles has reached this particular milestone there will be renewed speculation about whether the Queen should abdicate in favour of her son. But why should she? She is well respected around the World, she appears to be as physically fit and mentally alert as ever and in a world of constant change it is great to have a sense of continuity somewhere along the line. Apart from this she demonstrates very clearly how much of a contribution a seriously older person can make in society.

With the speed of change that is happening around us it is good to have an intelligent voice that is in a position to be listened to, someone who is prepared to think out of the box, someone who will say "Whoa, hang on a moment, you might be going down a route you will ultimately regret". The political system is such that government decisions are geared to short terminism whereas a person like Charles will have a much longer perspective. Apart from the fact that Charles has a good insight into the history of both this country and others (politicians are notoriously bad at learning from history it seems) another point in his favour is that he has a good grasp of inter- relationships in the natural world. Again this is an area in which our politicians are often found wanting. In our helter-skelter world where damaging actions can happen, in geological timescales, in the blink of an eye, hacking down rain forests being a classic example, then we need wise minds to understand the problems to come. Charles gives some evidence that he does understand these things.

From what I've written it might be thought that I think Charles has no faults. Not at all. He has certainly inherited the short fuse of his grandfather, George VI. As to his much discussed first marriage he found himself in the impossible position of not being able to wed his true love until much more recently. The body language between himself and Camilla speaks volumes for their relationship. I have the feeling that they are particularly comfortable when they visit either of my two counties. And so they should be of course!

Getting back to blogging

This blog has been very neglected of late and I don't have any good excuses like being laid low by the flu for instance! The weather here is now typically Cornish late autumn - mild, cloudy and with always a hint of dampness in the air. We did at least have a pleasantly sunny day on Wednesday and, although sunshine is in short supply at the moment, when we do get a rare bright day the sun is appreciated all the more. What used to be so frustrating was being stuck in an office when the weather was glorious outside and then be rained on at the weekend! I had previously written about seeing a violet in bloom in a patch of these flowers close to the river, on checking today I didn't see that same flower but did see another one out.

The cold northerly blast in the last week of October didn't last long. I expect at least one such period of weather in the late autumn but it normally occurs in November or December. I shall be interested to see if there is a repeat performance between now and Christmas.

Obama wins, dignified concession from McCain

As expected then the new President-Elect in the USA is Barack Obama. I watched the start of the results coming in on my computer but no way was I going to stay up all night! On a previous post I had put forward my main reasons for rooting for Obama: my worry with John McCain was that his health problems might prove terminal whilst in office which would then enable the so so scary Sarah Palin to become President plus the fact that McCain is known to have a very violent temper, an aspect of character not too desirable for the leader of the free world. Having said that he made a very fair and decent concession speech and I certainly warm to him far more than those extreme right wing elements in his party.

It was interesting that the folks in America seemed to be prepared to queue for however long it took to exercise their democratic rights, personally I can't stand queuing and am lucky enough to be able to live a life where that chore is nearly non-existent! When I cast my vote here in the village I reckon I'm in and out of the polling station in 60 seconds!

I don't think it would be right to expect rapid changes after Obama is sworn in in January - I've seen it written that he will have the "inbox from hell", a fine expression. What seems to be particularly good is that we should see America reconnect with the rest of the world but don't expect Obama to be a soft touch. That wiry frame conceals a very strong personality methinks.

The BBC gets it right with these programmes

The BBC, quite rightly in my opinion, has been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism as a result of the stupid prank on the Russell Brand show. I was one of those very concerned about the event, the fact that the BBC employed these idiots, payed them ridiculous amounts of money, and that they had dropped their standards to a new low. Without wanting to sound elitist I have to say that there are certain standards of respect and decency that a public service provider should not fall below. Period.

It is pleasing though to flag up two current series on BBC television that are, in their separate ways, absolutely superb and show just how good the corporation can be. The first one I would mention is running on Sunday evenings and it is following Stephen Fry on a trip around the USA. I guess that it is no coincidence that this is being shown around the period of the election over there! Certainly Mr Fry is doing a great job in showing the incredible diversity of people, culture and scenery in that amazing country. As I would expect the series is showing just how open Americans are as a people, and their personalities gel well with Stephen's laid back style. It was good to be reminded about just how empty much of this huge country is once you are away from the cities on the coastal plains and around the Great Lakes. As we are an island nation here in Britain I had never much thought about borders so it was a bit of a shock to see the fencing erected to inhibit incursions from Mexicans on the southern border. Stephen has been an excellent guide and I'm looking forward to the next episode when I think he gets towards the Pacific having started his journey on the Atlantic shoreline.

The other programme that deserves a bouquet is one on BBC2: this a follow up to the popular Dragons' Den programme. Dragons' Den of course is the show in which would be entrepreneurs make a pitch for cash and expertise to a panel of five very successful millionaires who have built their empires from scratch. Of course many folk go away empty handed but the great thing is that others do get a leg up with their businesses. Now I am a great admirer of all those people in this country who have great ideas and then want to put them into practice. We have had and still have incredible talent in this country to invent and make great products and come up with great ideas; of course the intention of the programme makers is to provide good entertainment for the viewers but to me it is really important to demonstrate our entrepreneurial instincts as a nation. As I said at the top of this paragraph this is a follow up to DD - there are five 1 hour programmes each looking at one of the Dragons, to look in on their family lives, how they run their businesses, what the other four dragons think of them (!) together with examples of the successes they have had in investing in the people who have nervously pitched before them. As usual Evan Davis keeps a welcome light touch on this background series, hardly intruding at all on the proceedings - other programme presenters please note! There are two down now and three to go, this series is very absorbing so well done to the BBC!

A quick aside: I have just had a quick peak at the BBC's Dragons' Den website (to make sure I spelt the presenter's name correctly!) and was surprised to see that the original Dragons' Den or its equivalent came from Japan. They say you learn something new every day!

November forecast now out from Piers

Following on from my last entry I see that Piers Corbyn has now posted up his forecast for November on his website here. Understandably his totally inaccurate prophecy for last month has disappeared; I imagine that this was very embarrassing to him. As usual his message is quite apocalyptic in tone but it's noticeable that he's resisted the temptation this time of having a news conference so that the likes of 'The Daily Express' can scream at us that the end is nigh. Of course Piers just may be right this time and I would be very happy to acknowledge such a feat on this blog should it happen. But I'm not going to hold my breath in anticipation.

New low point for Piers Corbyn

When I started this blog I quite expected the weather to feature in it now and again, even more so when a notable meteorological event happens in my two counties such as the freak hailstorm at Ottery St Mary. What I hadn't expected though were the frequent referrals I've made to forecasts produced by Piers Corbyn. I'm sorry to harp on about him but as I am someone fairly obsessed with our weather and which way our climate might change I have become very interested in what Piers has to say. A reminder that Mr Corbyn does not go along with the mainstream view on climate change, he is convinced that it is not man's activities driving our climate but that sunspots and magnetic storms on the sun, or the lack of them are the main factors pushing our climate one way or another. As I am someone who instinctively prefers not to follow the herd I am certainly interested in Corbyn's theories but it is difficult to find a convincing narrative from him on the subject. Now Piers reckons that he has the ability to produce an accurate forecast up to year in advance, some considerable claim don't you think. The trouble is his forecasts frequently don't stand up to scrutiny.

On the homepage of his website here he has a summary of the month's expected weather. As it is only for the upcoming month when it is posted there and it is his proud boast that he can forecast up to a year ahead then obviously a vague summary would be just a doddle. In case the October forecast has been taken down by the time you read this I'll just repeat what Piers reckoned October would be like so that it's possible to do a reality check. This is what he says (or said): "October 2008. Unusually Cold with sleet or snow at times on frequent Northerly winds. Often foggy. Milder later ... a major damaging storm." So had did October pan out over the country as a whole. "Unusually Cold" etc - most of the month was pleasantly mild. "Often foggy" - remarkably little fog, don't recall many airports fogbound for instance. "Milder later" - no it wasn't, as we are all aware the last five days or so has seen a blast of arctic air over the country with some snow showers. "... a major damaging storm" - I'm still waiting for this Piers (the hailstorm that had such an impact on Ottery St Mary was very small in area and was obviously not what Piers was talking about).

From the above it can be seen that Piers covering the relatively short period of one month was 100% wrong not just incorrect in some minor detail. This is not just a minor relapse in normally accurate forecasting, if you look at the labels to the right of this piece and scan down to his name you will see a number of references to him. I'm not saying that he's never got anything right but as can be seen from the comparison I've just made it might be a risky business sending him money for his detailed forecasts; all I can do is to say "take his forecasts with a generous pinch of salt".

Where now for Jonathan Ross

Things have certainly moved apace in the last day or two in the Russell Brand/Jonathan Ross prank phone call episode: Brand has resigned from the BBC as indeed has Radio2 controller Lesley Douglas. Ross is suspended from his BBC shows for 12 weeks without pay - a gross loss to him of about £1.5 million. It is evident that the BBC feel that they can draw a line under things, for the moment at least. Looking at the fallout so far we are told that Douglas was good at her job and was held in high esteem by Radio2's presenters. She may not be the person who agreed that particular edition of Brand's show could go on air but it was she who employed him and I can understand why she believed she should be the sacrificial lamb in this instance. Brand took the sensible decision to go anyway which obviated any need for the BBC to discipline him. But the corporation still have problems: they have to decide what action to take against whoever sanctioned this show with its obscene phone calls should hit the airwaves. Then what happens with Ross after he has served his ban? Maybe he will make the decision for them by leaving the BBC, that would be good riddance so far as I am concerned. If Ross stays I think he will have quite a job regaining acceptance from not only other employees of the BBC but the licence payer as well. Ofcom are now involved and if they decide to fine the BBC and Ross has resumed his alleged £6 million a year pay packet then one could expect a further outcry from the general public.

It's interesting to go back in time a little. I remember how in the 1950s the BBC was a highly revered institution, it was regarded rather like the doctor, the vicar and the bank manager. It was impartial, it was warm and safe. Of course commercial television had just started but this wasn't perceived as a big threat initially; I don't recall just when pirate radio had its heyday but eventually Radio1 took over from that. I do remember though the minor shock wave that arrived with 'That Was The Week That Was' fronted by David Frost in the early sixties. Suddenly satire had become mainstream. Things would never be quite the same again. As I see it I grew up in an age when rightly or wrongly standards were very clearly defined, it was all very sharp edges if you like whereas today what is or is not acceptable has become much more blurred. This is particularly the case with comedy. There has been much use in the past few days of phrases like "edgy comedy" and "pushing the boundaries" and some have used such expressions to excuse the antics of Brand and Ross. However let's be totally clear on this - what these two did was not funny in any way shape or form, it was totally unacceptable behaviour.

Although this incident was absolutely one not to be tolerated there were amazingly only two complaints prior to the 'Mail on Sunday' breaking the story. I don't know the present total of complainants but believe it is over 30,000, an extraordinary total for an incident which most would not have been aware of but for the press intervention. This reaction has shaken the BBC to the core. Here are my thoughts on just why so many folk have taken the BBC to task - I think we can assume that most of them are simply appalled at the behaviour of both Brand and Ross but because it has become such a huge story in the media and in the BBC's news programmes as well, with constant updates on numbers of complainants, then a lot of people are contacting the BBC whereas normally the story might have passed them by. In other words the whole thing has been feeding on itself. Now put into the mix that the injured party was Andrew Sachs, not just any old person but someone who, through his portrayal of Manuel in 'Fawlty Towers', has gained a lot of affection from the British public. The other thing of course is that we are aware that Ross gets a huge slice of money from the BBC (indirectly from us) and there is the perception that we shouldn't be paying a person £6 million per year for using the 'F' word down a mobile phone. This might sound a little simplistic but is basically where we are at.

The 12 week suspension for Jonathan Ross will at least give him time to come to terms with his absolute stupidity and allow him to reflect on whether he really should try to mend his career with the BBC.

Freak hailstorm deluges Ottery St Mary

There can be no doubt about the most important story in my two counties yesterday and that was the freak weather of the preceding night that impacted on East Devon. It was a very severe thunder cum hailstorm centred on Ottery St Mary where most damage was done. Although Ottery took the brunt of the storm other nearby villages such as Feniton and Tipton St John also had a fair measure of flooding. The pictures I've seen on TV and on the internet give the impression of snow drifts but in reality the two foot deep or more "snow" was compacted hail. Although a belt of heavy showers had been forecast to come down from the north west during the night for some reason this very localised storm developed and stayed over Ottery St Mary for two hours or more. It has been suggested that up to 4 inches of rain descended on the town during the night with cars being moved in the floodwater and a number of people having to be rescued from their homes.

Rather like Boscastle in 2004 this weather event was both extreme and localised. Here in the Tamar Valley this October has been relatively benign and it takes some believing that the Ottery area has just suffered in the way it has. A couple of questions here: are these extreme weather events becoming more frequent or is it just a case of dimming of one's memory of what happened in the years, even decades, past? And if in truth extreme weather is now more prevalent can climate change be a factor.

Reverting to Boscastle for a moment, where it rained heavily on the night of the Ottery incident as well - enough to cause some flooding to a small number of properties, their huge storm occurred in the relative heat of August. It's also known that the topography of that part of Cornwall lends itself to the creation of such weather events, made all the worse by the steep narrow valleys leading down to Boscastle Harbour. The ambient conditions in East Devon this week are very different as we continue to be subjected to a cold stream of Arctic air.

On November the Fifth of course Ottery St Mary delights in having one of the country's more bizarre events when residents run round the streets carrying blazing tar barrels on their backs! Preparatory to that the town's carnival is scheduled to take place this Saturday. I understand that the organisers are optimistic that these celebrations will proceed as normal.

BBC demonstrates its worst side

There is quite a furore, rightly, at the moment about telephone calls left on a mobile and subsequently broadcast live on the BBC's Radio 2 network. This had happened apparently on the Russell Brand Show - there had been an expectation that actor Andrew Sachs (best known as hapless waiter Manuel in Fawlty Towers but also someone who has narrated various documentary programmes) would appear on the programme but for whatever reason he wasn't able to come. So Mr Brand, accompanied in the studio by Jonathan Ross, decided to call Andrew on his mobile. They were unable to speak to the actor so left messages on his voicemail, in fact they did this four times. Brant made lewd comments about Andrew's granddaughter during the course of these telephone calls and the excitable Ross used the 'F' word apparently. This was an absolute disgrace in itself but what made things even worse was the fact that all of this was pre-recorded and the BBC saw no problem in broadcasting it.

Reading this you might think that I am a prude: I'm not. I confess that under stress I have used the 'F' word, I've known those with an obviously limited vocabulary use this word in every other sentence but just accept that as the way they are - no problem. If people want to talk to each other in a highly sexual manner and they are clearly not offending others then again no problem. But I very strongly object to these two highly paid twerps (and the BBC are using your money and my money remember) using this sort of language and thinking it smart or funny - it's not. And as for the Beeb letting this go out live, well Lord Reith must be turning in his grave right now. The way I understand it with the BBC, when it comes to making an editorial judgement, if there is doubt then the matter is referred up the line. Was this done in this instance?

So what to do now. Via the internet I have heard Brand make a most insincere apology about the incident, the most insincere apology that I can remember anyone uttering. I believe that Ross has also made an apology of sorts to Andrew Sachs. This is what I would like to see:

• Brand and Ross to each make a donation of at least £100,000 to a charity of Mr Sachs's choice (they can easily afford it) as a condition for their continuing to get employment with the BBC
• The person who is found to have decided that this programme should go out on air in the form that it did should be sacked.

Will this happen? Better not to hold your breath. Today's general attitude that anything goes anywhere is just not acceptable.

Calendula, snapdragons ... and a violet

I have a wooden trough outside my front door kindly made by my neighbour (thank you David) and I'm pleased to say that the snapdragons and English marigolds (calendula) that are in it are still flowering nicely. These just happen to be two of my favourite species of garden flower and enjoy a long flowering period. I have remarked before that I had attempted to grow calendula from seed but quickly lost them to the slugs; the ones presently in flower together with the snapdragons were established plants and have not suffered damage from pests. They certainly give me a lot of pleasure, something which I hope those walking along my road can also enjoy.

Just before lunch we took a short stroll along the river bank and were pleased to see our first violet out. I remember last year seeing a violet in the same patch right at the start of November. The forecast for the coming week is for a blast of cold air from the Arctic with maybe some night frosts so this could well inhibit any further flowering. Going back to last year again I recall that after that one initial flower there was quite a pause before seeing any more.

Although there are plenty of leaves to scuffle through when out and about, looking across the valley it looks as if the woodland hasn't seen much in the way of leaf fall yet. I suppose it won't be long now though before the trees are in their winter garb.